关键词: 气候变化, 生态保护工程, 影响, 对策建议

Abstract: In this paper, the relationship between ecological quality for land vegetation and the precipitation & temperature changes during 1978-2013 in the northern part of China (North China, Northeast and Northwest China, Shelterbelt Construction Program region) was analyzed, and so was grassland productivity and precipitation & temperature changes during 1961-2013 in main grassland in China. The ecological quality for land vegetation increased due to the precipitation increase in the northern part of China, and the ecological degradation in grassland slowed down, resulting from the precipitation increase and the grassland ecological protection. The temporal and spacial distribution of precipitation and temperature in China and the extreme events are the main constraints on the achievements of Shelterbelt Construction Program in the northern part of China and Grassland Ecological Protection Project. According to the future climate change in China under RCPs greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the climate will get warmer and wetter in the northern part of China in the next 30-60 year, which will be beneficial to the Shelterbelt Construction Program and Grassland Ecological Protection Project, and the time for ecological restoration will be shorten. But the warmer temperature will increase the risk of wild fire, pest and disease. In coping with these, speeding up the schedule of the shelterbelt construction and grassland ecological restoration is preferable, meantime the scientific research on adaption to climate changes as well as disaster prevention and mitigation should be carried out as soon as possible.

Key words: climate change, ecological protection project, effect, coping strategy