青藏高原气候变化及其对水资源影响的研究进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.247

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

回顾总结了近20年、特别是近10年来青藏高原气候变化的特征、变化的原因及其对高原水资源的影响方面的最新研究进展。1960年以来青藏高原地区总体气温显著升高，升温趋势存在明显的海拔依赖性，温室气体、冰雪反照率反馈、云-水汽-辐射反馈、局地强迫等是影响高原气温上升具有海拔依赖性的重要因素。总体上青藏高原降水呈现增加趋势，变化的区域性和季节性差异比气温变化的时空差异更强；降水空间变化主要分为南北偶极型、东西偶极型、中部和边缘差异型和多元型；夏季降水增加最为显著。受气候变化和人为气溶胶排放等影响，青藏高原水资源特别是冰冻圈水资源发生剧烈的变化，大部分冰川加速退缩、冰川径流增加、湖泊严重扩张，导致青藏高原上水循环加强和气候偏暖湿化；青藏高原积雪的变化具有明显的年代际特征。最后提出未来需要进一步开展的研究方向和政策建议。

关键词: 青藏高原, 气候变化, 水资源, 影响, 研究进展

Abstract:

This article reviews the studies on the characteristics, causes, and impacts of climate change over Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent 20 years, particularly in recent 10 years. Since 1960, the overall temperature over the TP has significantly increased and there is a significant altitude dependence. Greenhouse gases, feedback of ice and snow albedo, and of cloud-water vapor-radiation, as well as the local forcing are important factors affecting the altitude dependence of the TP warming. The precipitation on the TP shows an overall increasing trend, and shows stronger regional and seasonal differences than surface air temperature changes. The spatial variation of precipitation is mainly divided into north-south dipole, east-west dipole, central and marginal difference type, and multivariate type. The most significant precipitation increase occurs in summer. Affected by climate change and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, the water resources especially cryosphere water resources over the TP have undergone drastic changes, including accelerated glacier shrinkage, increased glacier runoff, severe lake expansion, leading to climate warming and humidification. The changes in snow cover on the TP have shown significantly interdecadal variations. Finally, further research and policy recommendations are proposed.

Key words: The Tibetan Plateau, Climate change, Water resources, Impact, Research progress

包文, 段安民, 游庆龙, 胡蝶. 青藏高原气候变化及其对水资源影响的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(2): 158-169.

BAO Wen, DUAN An-Min, YOU Qing-Long, HU Die. Research progress on climate change and its impact on water resources over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(2): 158-169.

图/表 1

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