气候适应性技术采纳对农户农业收入的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.186

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究气候变化冲击下，气候适应性技术采纳对农户农业收入的影响效应，文中基于黄河流域中上游地区6个省份2502份农户调研数据，使用无条件分位数回归（UQR）和再中心化影响函数（RIF）分解回归，分析了气候适应性技术采纳对不同农业收入水平农户的增收效应及收入差距影响机制，得出以下结论：气候适应性技术采纳对农业收入水平由低到高的农户的增收效应不断递减，对低农业收入水平农户增收效应最明显；气候适应性技术采纳可以缩减农户内部农业收入差距，对低农业收入水平组影响效应最明显；RIF分解回归显示，结构效应是农户内部农业收入差距缩小的主因，以农户受教育水平影响最主要。因此，气候适应性技术应该被广泛推广，同时要注意提升农户对气候适应性技术的理解与认知，提高农户对气候适应性技术的接受意愿，鼓励农业收入低水平农户采取组合型气候适应性技术，同时政府可根据实际情况给予农户适当使用补贴，减轻农户使用负担。

关键词: 气候适应性技术, 农业收入, 不同收入水平, 无条件分位数回归（UQR）, 再中心化影响函数（RIF）分解回归

Abstract:

In order to investigate the impact of climate adaptation technology adoption on farmer households’ agricultural income under the impact of climate change, the income-growth effect of climate adaptation technology adoption on farmer households and the mechanism of the effect on income gap were analyzed with different levels of agricultural income based on 2502 research data of farmer households in six provinces in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, using the Unconditional Quartile Regression (UQR) and Recentered Influence Function (RIF) decomposition regression. Conclusions are as follows. Climate adaptation technology adoption has decreasing effect on the income increase of farm households from low to high levels of agricultural income, and the effect on the income increase of farm households with low level of agricultural income is the most obvious. Climate adaptation technology adoption can narrow the gap of agricultural income within the farm households, and the effect is the most obvious within the low level agricultural income group. The RIF decomposition regression shows that the structural effect is the main reason for the narrowing of the gap of agricultural income within the farm households, mainly with the effect of education level of farm households on the income gap. Therefore, climate adaptive technologies should be widely promoted, and at the same time, attention should be paid to improve the understanding and cognition of farmers on climate adaptive technologies, improve the willingness of farmers to accept climate adaptive technologies, encourage the low-income farmers to adopt a combination of climate adaptive technologies, and the government should give appropriate subsidies to reduce the burden of farmers.

Key words: Climate adaptation technology, Agricultural income, Different income levels, Unconditional Quantile Regression (UQR), Recentered Influence Function (RIF) decomposition regression

李现康, 韩星星, 梁洪松. 气候适应性技术采纳对农户农业收入的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(2): 193-204.

LI Xian-Kang, HAN Xing-Xing, LIANG Hong-Song. Impact of climate adaption technology adoption on farm households’ agricultural income[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(2): 193-204.

图/表 7

图1 研究区域示意图②(②注：审图号（2023）2767号自然资源部监制底图无修改。)

Fig. 1 Schematic of the study area

表1 变量选取及描述性结果

Table 1 Variable selection and descriptive results

表2 样本基本特征情况

Table 2 Basic characteristics of the sample

表3 气候适应性技术采纳对农户人均农业收入的无条件分位数回归结果

Table 3 Unconditional quantile regression results of climate adaptive technologies adoption on the agricultural income per capita of farm households

表4 气候适应性技术采纳对农户人均农业收入差距的分位差异检验结果

Table 4 Results of the test of quantile differences in the gap of agricultural income per capita of farm households due to the climate adaptive technologies adoption

表5 农户气候适应性技术采纳再中心化影响函数（RIF）回归分解

Table 5 Decomposition of Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regression for climate adaptative technologies adoption of farmer households

表6 Heckman两阶段样本自选择检验结果

Table 6 Results of Heckman’s two-stage sample self-selection test

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