IPCC AR6 WGIII报告解读：城市系统减缓气候变化

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.273

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市系统的减缓策略在应对气候变化中具有重要作用。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第三工作组报告（WGIII）第八章“城市系统和其他居住区”针对城市系统如何减缓气候变化，围绕城市减缓策略下的协同与权衡、城市系统和温室气体排放、城市减缓策略、治理制度和财政、不同类型城市的综合减缓路线等方面进行了系统性的全面评估。报告指出，日益集中的人口和活动是提高资源效率和规模脱碳的机遇。城市碳排放在全球温室气体排放中的份额持续增加，且区域间差异较大。到2030年，新建和升级现有城市基础设施将产生显著排放，同时城市土地面积的增长，也对未来碳锁定产生重大影响。鉴于城市温室气体排放增加和预测未来极端气候事件更频繁的双重挑战，迫切需要将城市减缓策略纳入城市规划设计中，以应对气候变化。城市只有通过深度脱碳和系统性转型才能实现温室气体净零排放。基于报告结论，我国应加强对城市系统减缓气候变化的关注。首先，利用国土空间规划、城市能源系统电气化和加强城市蓝绿基础设施三大总体减缓策略，从多维度、多部门耦合的角度实施可持续城市化。其次，制定城市级别的减缓目标以及碳达峰路径，并加强城市地区之间的合作与关联，以减缓气候变化。

关键词: 城市系统, 温室气体排放, 碳锁定, 减缓气候变化

Abstract:

Urban systems play an important role in climate change mitigation. Chapter VIII of Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), ‘Urban Systems and Other Settlements’ provides a systematic and comprehensive assessment on how urban systems can help in the mitigation of climate change. It includes co-benefits and trade-offs of urban mitigation strategies, urban systems and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, urban mitigation options, governance, institutions and finance, and a roadmap of mitigation strategies for different urbanization types. The report shows that the growing concentration of people and activities by urbanization is an opportunity to simultaneously increase resource efficiency and decarbonize at scale. The urban share of global GHG emissions is substantive. It continues to increase, with much inter-region variation in the magnitude of the increase. In 2030, the construction of new, and upgrading of existing urban infrastructure will result in significant emissions. The increase in urban land areas will also create significant implications for future carbon lock-in. There is an urgent need to integrate urban mitigation strategies to address climate change, given the dual challenges of rising urban GHG emissions and more frequent extreme climate events. Deep decarbonization and systemic transformation are critical for cities to achieve net zero GHG emissions. Based on the report’s conclusions, China needs to pay more attention to climate change mitigation in urban systems. Three broad urban mitigation options can be used, including spatial planning and infrastructure, electrification urban energy systems, and enhancing carbon stocks through urban green and blue infrastructure, to achieve sustainable urbanization from a multi-dimensional and across-sectoral nexus perspective. In addition, China needs to develop urban-scale mitigation goals and carbon peaking pathways and strengthen cooperation and linkages between cities, in order to achieve climate change mitigation.

Key words: Urban systems, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Carbon lock-in, Climate change mitigation

米志付, 张浩然. IPCC AR6 WGIII报告解读：城市系统减缓气候变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 139-150.

MI Zhi-Fu, ZHANG Hao-Ran. Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report: climate change mitigation of urban systems[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(2): 139-150.

图/表 3

图1 全球城市地区住宅建筑、商业建筑、交通、废物和材料生产部门的参考情景和减缓潜力[1]

Fig. 1 Reference scenario and mitigation potential for global urban areas in the residential and commercial building, transport, waste, and material production sectors [1]

图2 城市增长类型[1]

Fig. 2 Urban growth typologies [1]

图3 在多个维度实施城市系统减缓方案的促成和障碍因素可行性评估[1]

Fig. 3 Feasibility assessment based on the enablers and barriers of implementing mitigation options for urban systems across multiple dimensions [1]

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