关键词: 早期预警, 极端事件, 气候变化, 风险, 灾害

Abstract:

Climate is the natural environment that human beings depend on for survival, and it is also an important basic resource for the sustainable development of economy and society. However, the trend and extreme changes of climate will have an impact on the natural ecosystem, and most of the serious adverse effects will continue to spread and permeate the economic and social system, forming climate risks and bringing climate security problems to related industries, regions and fields. In the new normal of climate, increasingly extreme weather and climate event not only exacerbates the impact of single events, but also challenges disaster risk management in a “zero carbon” future. Early warning is an important tool for disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. To this end, the United Nations has deepened the multi-hazard early warning system and proposed the Early Warning for All Initiative (EW4All). The goal is that every person in the world is protected by an early warning system by the end of 2027 in response to increasingly extreme weather and climate change.

This study systematically reviewed the development history of early warning domestically and abroad, and summarized the four stages of the international early warning system, namely, the stage of proposing early warning concept (1965 to 1989), the research stage (1990 to 1999), and the stage of single-hazard (2000 to early 2010s) and multi-early warning system development (mid-2010s to early 2022). Identified from the perspective of the development history of international early warning and the definition of “multi-hazard”, the EW4All is the climate change adaptation initiative launched by the United Nations in the context of climate change, which puts forward more targeted requirements for the comprehensive deepening development of multi-hazard early warning system. Its connotation has three levels: first, to establish early warning system in countries without it; second, to improve early warning system in countries where it is not yet adequate or where increasingly extreme weather and climate conditions make existing systems less effective; Third, to establish early warning capacity for climate risks that may exist in the process of low-carbon transition of the whole society.

Risk awareness, monitoring and warning, information dissemination, and emergence response are the four key elements of an early warning system, and strengthening the capacity of the entire international community in these four aspects is the basic approach to achieve the goal of EW4All. For countries that do not have early warning systems, it is necessary to rely on the joint efforts of the international community to help them establish early warning system as soon as possible according to the checklist of multi-hazard early warning system. However, for countries with insufficient early warning system, it is necessary to strengthen and improve the weak spots in the whole chain, and the most important thing is to upgrade the core technology for early warning. Based on the early warning services and climate risk assessments that have been carried out in China, this study proposes three priority directions for climate risk management in China under the framework of EW4All, combining the characteristics and impacts of the development of extreme weather and climate events in China under the background of climate change and the current situation and development model of early warning service in China, as well as the climate risks, early warning demands and technology gaps faced under the new normal of climate. First, to strengthen the scientific research on the mechanism of the occurrence and development of compounding extreme weather and climate events and on their prediction and early warning technologies, as well as research on the potential tipping elements in the human socio-economic system, to assess the potential cascading impacts and scales caused by extreme events and breakout of tipping elements, enhancing the capacity to prevent risks of new-type climate disasters through expanding the hazard types involved in existing multi-hazard early warning system. Second, to identify the climate risks that climate change may cause to sectors and regions during their green and low-carbon transformation and accelerate the construction of a national early warning platform for both climate and climate change scales for climate security, so as to improve the ability of the whole society to cope with climate risks. Third, to carry out international cooperation on multi-hazard early warning, and help countries that do not have or have insufficient early warning systems to establish or improve their early warning capabilities, focusing on clarifying the risks and levels of major climate disasters at regional and national levels, as well as the urgent needs of adapting to climate change, for providing various types of public goods for meteorological disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: Early warning, Extreme events, Climate change, Risk, Disaster