COP27全球适应目标谈判面临的挑战及中国应对策略

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.003

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 389-399.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.003

COP27全球适应目标谈判面临的挑战及中国应对策略

刘硕¹^,²(), 李玉娥¹^,²(), 王斌¹^,², 蔡岸冬¹^,²

1 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，北京 100081
2 农业农村部农业环境重点实验室，北京 100081

收稿日期:2023-01-09 修回日期:2023-03-08 出版日期:2023-05-30 发布日期:2023-04-28
通讯作者: 李玉娥，女，研究员，liyue@caas.cn
作者简介:刘硕，女，副研究员，liushuo@caas.cn
基金资助:
生态环境部应对气候变化国际合作和履约专项“公约及巴黎协定实施细则相关适应和损失损害问题研究”(2022—2023年度);中德国际合作专项子课题“支持实施中国国家自主贡献——支持气候变化适应行动”;全球环境基金（GEF）国家层面透明度相关制度研究及能力建设项目“中国适应气候变化行动实施效果评估方法学研究”

Challenges faced by the negotiation of global goal on adaptation in COP27 and China’s countermeasures

LIU Shuo¹^,²(), LI Yu-E¹^,²(), WANG Bin¹^,², CAI An-Dong¹^,²

1 Institute of Environmental and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2 Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment and Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2023-01-09 Revised:2023-03-08 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

适应气候变化已成为国际气候治理的重要内容之一。2021年《联合国气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）及其《巴黎协定》启动了“格拉斯哥-沙姆沙伊赫全球适应目标工作方案（GGA工作方案)”，旨在通过系统构建适应总体概念和适应行动监测评估系统，提高全球适应行动实施力度、增强适应行动有效性及加强支持力度。2022年举行的《公约》第27次缔约方大会（COP27）针对GGA提出了新的概念性技术框架，但如何将国家层面的概念、数据、方法和指标融入全球适应治理体系，仍缺少系统方案设计，阻碍了全球适应目标谈判进展，降低了《巴黎协定》在适应行动与支持匹配度分析结论的可靠性，削弱了评估发达国家向发展中国家提供适应支持的履约进展的准确性。针对此问题，文中梳理了COP27 GGA工作方案最新谈判进展、国家或集团提案及适应委员会技术报告，识别适应概念、指标和方法的关键技术难点，通过分析《公约》机制下全球环境基金和技术领域的适应资金占比，确定了当前支持适应行动的资金占比不足30%，并识别了现有全球适应分析工具在支撑适应需求评估方面面临的不足。同时基于中国适应战略提出的国家需求，分别针对适应概念体系不完善、缺少适应行动监测和评估方法及指标体系，以及缺少可用于汇总国内信息并提交国际社会履约的报告规范这3个主要技术短板，构建了相应的解决方案和技术路径，为应对今后中国制定谈判对策、增强国内适应工作成效提供技术参考。

关键词: 全球适应目标, 国际谈判, 挑战, 需求, 解决路径

Abstract:

Adapting to climate change has become one of the important contents of international climate governance. In 2021, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement launched the “Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh Work Programme on Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA Work Programme)”, which aims to improve the implementation of global adaptation actions, enhance the effectiveness of adaptation actions and strengthen support through the systematic construction of the overall concept of adaptation and the monitoring and evaluation system of adaptation actions. The 27th UNFCCC conference of the Parties held in 2022 proposed a new conceptual technical framework for GGA. However, how to integrate the concepts, data, methods and indicators at the national level into the global adaptation governance system is still lack of systematic scheme design, which hinders the progress of the negotiation of the GGA, reduces the reliability of the conclusions of the Paris Agreement on the matching of adaptation actions and support, and weakens the assessment accuracy of the progress of the implementation of adaptation support provided by developed countries to developing countries. In response to this problem, this study analysis the latest negotiation progress of the COP27 GGA work program, national or group proposals and the technical report of the Adaptation Committee were combed, the key technical difficulties of the concept, indicators and methods of adaptation were identified, and a result that the current proportion of funds to support adaptation actions is less than 30% was determined by analyzing the proportion of adaptation funds in the GEF and technology fields under the UNFCCC mechanism. The study also presents the challenges on existing global adaptation analysis tools in supporting adaptation needs assessment. At the same time, based on the national needs put forward by China’s adaptation strategy, the corresponding solutions and technical paths have been constructed for three main technical weaknesses, namely, the imperfect adaptation concept system, the lack of adaptation action monitoring and evaluation methods and indicator system, and the lack of report specifications that can be used to summarize domestic information and submit to the international community for compliance. All above technical work could strengthen the comprehensive capacity of formulating sound negotiation strategies for China in future.

Key words: Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), International negotiation, Challenges, Needs, Solutions pathway

刘硕, 李玉娥, 王斌, 蔡岸冬. COP27全球适应目标谈判面临的挑战及中国应对策略[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 389-399.

LIU Shuo, LI Yu-E, WANG Bin, CAI An-Dong. Challenges faced by the negotiation of global goal on adaptation in COP27 and China’s countermeasures[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 389-399.

图/表 7

图1 全球环境基金（GEF）2016—2020年适应和减缓资助金额

Fig. 1 Global Environment Facility (GEF) funding amount for adaptation and mitigation in 2016-2020

图2 全球不同区域适应需求分析方法占比

Fig. 2 Proportion of methods for adaptation need assessment in different regions at global level

图3 全球适应领域已开发的方法

Fig. 3 Number of existing methods on adaptation based on different sectors or areas

图4 中国适应气候变化面临的科学认知与方法方面的挑战及解决途径

Fig. 4 Challenges and solutions to scientific cognition and methods faced by China in adapting to climate change

图5 中国适应气候变化概念集形成路径

Fig. 5 Path of China’s concept set of adaptation to climate change

图6 中国适应气候变化进展监测与评估路径

Fig. 6 Path of monitoring and evaluation of the progress from the actions made for adaptation to climate change in China

图7 中国适应气候变化进展信息报告路径

Fig. 7 Path of information reporting of China’s progress in adapting to climate change

参考文献 29

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[2]	United Nations. Chile Madrid time for action (Decision 1/CMA.2. FCCC/PA/CMA/2019/6/Add.1.) [EB/OL]. 2020 [2020-12-15]. https://unfccc.int/documents/210477
[3]	United Nations. Report of the conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement on the third part of its first session, held in Katowice from 2 to 15 December 2018. Addendum 1. Part two: action taken by the conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (Decision 9/CMA.1. FCCC/PA/CMA/2018/3/Add.1.) [EB/OL]. 2018 [2020-12-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/193407
[4]	United Nations. Glasgow climate pact [EB/OL]. 2021 [2022-11-20]. https://unfccc.int/decisions
[5]	United Nations. Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh Work Programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation [EB/OL]. 2021 [2022-02-17]. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/CMA2021_10_Add3_E.pdf
[6]	陈敏鹏. 《联合国气候变化框架公约》适应谈判历程回顾与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16 (1): 105-116.
	Chen M P. Progress and outlook of adaptation negotiation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16 (1): 105-116 (in Chinese)
[7]	左佳鹭, 陈敏鹏. 全球适应目标的谈判进展和展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17 (5): 621-627.
	Zuo J L, Chen M P. Progress and outlook of negotiations on the global goal on adaptation[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17 (5): 621-627 (in Chinese)
[8]	刘硕, 李玉娥, 秦晓波, 等. 《巴黎协定》实施细则适应议题焦点解析及后续中国应对措施[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15 (4): 436-444.
	Liu S, Li Y E, Qin X B, et al. Main focus of adaptation under the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement and China’s future measures[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15 (4): 436-444 (in Chinese)
[9]	陈敏鹏, 张宇丞, 左佳鹭. 全球适应委员会呼吁提高全球适应领导力以增强恢复力[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16 (2): 253-254.
	Chen M P, Zhang Y C, Zuo J L. Global commission on adaptation calls for global leadership on adaptation to strengthen resilience[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16 (2): 253-254 (in Chinese)
[10]	Hinkel J, Bisaro A. Methodological choices in solution-oriented adaptation research: a diagnostic framework[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2016, 16: 7-20 doi: 10.1007/s10113-014-0682-0 URL
[11]	Cuevas S C. The interconnected nature of the challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation: evidence from local land use planning[J]. Climatic Change, 2016, 136: 661-676 doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1625-1 URL
[12]	United Nations. Submission portal [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-17]. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/submissionsstaging/Pages/Home.aspx
[13]	United Nations. SB 56. Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh Work Programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation referred to in decision 7/CMA.3 [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-17]. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2022_L07E.pdf
[14]	United Nations. COP 27. Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh Work Programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation referred to in decision 7/CMA.3 [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-20]. https://unfccc.int/documents/624422
[15]	赵越. 全球气候治理中的公平性问题研究: 基于适应气候变化的融资和能力建设问题分析[D]. 北京: 北京外国语大学, 2020.
	Zhao Y. A research on climate equity of global climate governance: analysis of financing and capacity building issues on climate change adaptation[D]. Beijing: Beijing Foreign Studies University, 2020 (in Chinese)
[16]	United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Adaptation gap report 2020 [R]. Nairobi: UNEP, 2021
[17]	United Nations. Report of the global environment facility to the conference of the Parties [EB/OL]. 2020 [2021-03-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/258631
[18]	United Nations. Report of the global environment facility to the conference of the Parties [EB/OL]. 2019 [2021-03-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/200164
[19]	United Nations. Report of the global environment facility to the conference of the Parties [EB/OL]. 2018 [2021-03-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/182455
[20]	United Nations. Report of the global environment facility to the conference of the Parties [EB/OL]. 2017 [2021-03-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/28335
[21]	United Nations. Report of the global environment facility to the conference of the Parties [EB/OL]. 2016 [2021-03-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/9383
[22]	United Nations. Joint annual report of the technology executive committee and the climate technology center and network for 2020 [EB/OL]. 2021 [2021-03-17]. https://unfccc.int/documents/267476
[23]	United Nations. Methodologies for assessing adaptation needs (AC19) [EB/OL]. 2021 [2021-03-20]. https://unfccc.int/documents/268701
[24]	United Nations. Methodologies for assessing adaptation needs in the context of national adaptation planning and implementation [EB/OL]. 2021 [2021-03-20]. https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NWPStaging/Pages/SearchAsses.aspx
[25]	中华人民共和国生态环境部. 国家适应气候变化战略2035 [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-20]. https://www.mee.gov.cn/xxgk2018/xxgk/xxgk03/202206/t20220613_985261.html.
	Ministry of Ecology and Environment of The People’s Republic of China. National climate change adaptation strategy 2035 [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-20]. https://www.mee.gov.cn/xxgk2018/xxgk/xxgk03/202206/t20220613_985261.html (in Chinese)
[26]	中华人民共和国农业农村部. 关于印发《农业科技防灾减灾工作方案》的通知 [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-20]. http://www.kjs.moa.gov.cn/kjcx/202207/t20220712_6404504.htm.
	Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of The People’s Republic of China. Notice on issuing the “Work Plan for Agricultural Science and Technology Disaster Prevention and Reduction” [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-12-20]. http://www.kjs.moa.gov.cn/kjcx/202207/t20220712_6404504.htm (in Chinese)
[27]	United Nations. Report of the conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement on the third part of its first session, held in Katowice from 2 to 15 December 2018: modalities, procedures and guidelines for the transparency framework for action and support referred to in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement [EB/OL]. 2019 [2022-12-20]. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/CMA2018_03a02E.pdf
[28]	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Draft supplementary guidance for voluntary use by Parties in communicating information in accordance with the possible elements of an adaptation communication (AC19) [EB/OL]. 2021 [2021-03-20]. https://unfccc.int/documents/268904
[29]	International Organization for Standardization (ISO). Adaptation to climate change: principles, requirements and guidelines ISO/DIS 14090: 2019 [EB/OL]. 2019 [2021-03-20]. https://www.iso.org/standard/68507.html

COP27全球适应目标谈判面临的挑战及中国应对策略

Challenges faced by the negotiation of global goal on adaptation in COP27 and China’s countermeasures

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 7

参考文献 29

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	高美勋, 陈敏鹏, 滕飞. “一带一路”沿线国家适应气候变化的技术需求评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 731-742.
[2]	郑馨竺, 董馨阳, 王灿. 面向福祉和公平的需求侧减排路径、潜力与政策[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(5): 546-556.
[3]	高园, 欧训民. IPCC AR6报告解读：强化技术和管理创新的交通运输部门减碳路径[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(5): 567-573.
[4]	刘俊伶, 王克, 夏侯沁蕊, 刘芳名, 邹骥, 孔英. 城镇化背景下中国长期低碳转型路径研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(3): 355-366.
[5]	李继峰,顾阿伦,张成龙,孙振清. “十四五”中国分省经济发展、能源需求与碳排放展望——基于CMRCGE模型的分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 649-659.
[6]	周天军,邹立维,陈晓龙. 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(5): 445-456.
[7]	洪祎君, 崔惠娟, 王芳, 葛全胜. 基于发展中国家自主贡献文件的资金需求评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 621-631.
[8]	陈敏鹏, 张宇丞, 刘硕, 李玉娥. 《巴黎协定》特设工作组适应信息通报谈判的最新进展和展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(2): 191-200.
[9]	孙颖, 秦大河, 周波涛. 未来气候变化科学研究的主要方向和挑战[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(5): 324-330.
[10]	何崇恺, 顾阿伦. 碳成本传递原理、影响因素及对中国碳市场的启示——以电力部门为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(3): 220-226.
[11]	曹建廷, 邱冰, 夏军. 1956—2010年海河区降水变化对水资源供需影响分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(2): 111-114.
[12]	李玉娥,马欣,何霄嘉. 《巴厘行动计划》以来适应气候变化谈判进展及未来需求分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(2): 135-141.
[13]	胡建信,方雪坤,吴婧,张剑波. 中国控制和管理氢氟碳化物的机遇与挑战[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(2): 142-148.
[14]	曾宁. 气候变化：中国的困境、机遇和对策[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(03): 163-166.
[15]	王雪臣;庞军;冯相昭;吴卉婷. 中国能源密集型企业应对气候变化的挑战、机遇及行动建议[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(02): 110-116.