气候变化研究进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 111-114.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.02.005

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

1956—2010年海河区降水变化对水资源供需影响分析

曹建廷1,邱  冰1,夏  军2   

  1. 1 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120
    2 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-13 修回日期:2015-01-08 出版日期:2015-03-30 发布日期:2015-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 曹建廷 E-mail:caojianting@giwp.org.cn;jiantingcao@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划

Impacts of Precipitation Change on Water Supply and Demand in Haihe River Region During 1956-2010

Cao Jianting1, Qiu Bing1, Xia Jun2   

  1. 1 General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China; 
    2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2014-06-13 Revised:2015-01-08 Online:2015-03-30 Published:2015-03-30
  • Contact: Jian-Ting CAO E-mail:caojianting@giwp.org.cn;jiantingcao@163.com

摘要: 基于全国水资源综合规划和水资源公报获得的海河区1956—2010年降水、水资源系列资料和基准年水资源需水预测成果,分1956—1979年和1980—2010年两个时段,初步分析了降水变化对海河区水资源量和需水量的影响。结果显示:与1956—1979年相比,降水变化导致海河区1980—2010年水资源量减少约86亿m3,经济社会需水量增加约22亿m3,经济社会总缺水量77亿m3,占总缺水量的75%。降水减少加剧了海河区水资源的供需矛盾。

关键词: 水资源供给, 水资源需求, 降水变化, 海河区

Abstract: Based on China’s water resources assessment and water resources bulletins, time series of precipitation, water resource, and water demand projection in base year were established, and the impacts of precipitation changes on water supply and demand in Haihe River region were analyzed by comparison in two phases namely 1956-1979 and 1980-2010. The results showed that the decrease of precipitation significantly reduces water resources 8.6 billion m3 and increases the amount of water demand 2.2 billion m3 annually during 1980-2010. Socioeconomic water scarcity caused by precipitation change is 7.7 billion m3, occupying 75% of the total water scarcity. The precipitation decreasing aggregates the conflicts between water demand and supply.

Key words: water supply, water demand, precipitation change, Haihe River region

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