图1 长江流域170个气象站点及45个三级子流域分布图

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of 170 meteorological stations and 45 third-level water resources areas over the Yangtze River basin

图2 RCP4.5情景下CMIP5模式得到2006—2100年全球平均地表温度相对于基准期 (1986—2005年) 变化的时间序列

Fig. 2 Time series of annual (a) and 30-year annual mean (b) near-surface air temperature anomalies (relative to 1986-2005) from CMIP5 models averaged over the globe during 2006-2100 under RCP4.5

图3 长江流域年平均降水(a)和年潜在蒸散发(b)的泰勒图 注：图中字母A~M分别代表订正后13个气候模式,顺序与表1一致,字母N代表集合平均。

Fig. 3 Taylor diagrams of bias corrected outputs of 13 models in simulating annual precipitation (a) and potential evapotranspiration (b) in the Yangtze River basin (A-M, climate models, in the same order as Table 1; N, multi-model ensemble mean)

图4 1976—2005年长江流域平均年降水量和潜在蒸散发的空间分布

Fig. 4 Spatial patterns of annual mean precipitation(a, b) and calculated potential evapotranspiration (c, d) over the Yangtze River basin during 1976-2005 (a, c: observations; b, d: multi-model ensemble mean)

图5 长江流域1976—2005年平均降水和潜在蒸散发的IVS值

Fig. 5 The IVS of annual precipitation (left) and potential evapotranspiration (right) over the Yangtze River basin during 1976-2005 simulated by the models

图6 1976—2005年长江流域月降水和月潜在蒸散发分布

Fig. 6 The distribution of monthly precipitation (a) and potential evapotranspiration (b) over the Yangtze River basin during 1976-2005

图7 有资料流域月水量平衡模型率定期与验证期NSE

Fig. 7 Nash coefficients of two-parameter water balance model in calibration and validation period for monthly runoff simulation in 130 data available basins (a) the calibration period, (b) the validation period

图8 参证流域个数为1~10时不同空间相近法对应目标流域NSE (a)和长江流域20个有资料的三级子流域参数区域化前后NSE分布情况(b) 注：箱体上下分别表示NSE值的25%和75%分位数,箱体横线表示中位数,箱须表示5%和95%分位数。

Fig. 8 Nash coefficients of the target basins when the number of reference basins changes from 1 to 10 for different spatial proximity methods (a) and comparison of Nash coefficients of 20 data available basins over the Yangtze River basin between utilizing parameter regionalization or not (b) (The horizontal line in each box indicates the median, the boxes indicating interquartile model spread (25th and 75th), and the whiskers show the 5th and 95th inter quartile)

图9 1976—2005年长江流域月径流量分布

Fig. 9 The distribution of monthly runoff over the Yangtze River basin during 1976-2005

图10 长江流域未来年及季节降水量、潜在蒸散发量、径流量较历史时期的变幅 注：箱体上下分别表示差值的25%和75%分位数,箱体横线表示差值的中位数,箱须表示差值的5%和95%的分位数。

Fig. 10 Annual and seasonal precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff changes over the Yangtze River basin under two warming scenarios compared to the reference period (The horizontal line in each box indicates the median, the boxes indicating interquartile model spread (25th and 75th), and the whiskers show the 5th and 95th inter-quartile)

图11 基于多模式集合平均预测的长江流域未来年降水、年潜在蒸散发及年径流量较历史时期变幅

Fig. 11 Annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff changes over the Yangtze River basin under two warming scenarios compared to the reference period based on multi-model ensemble mean

图12 基于多模式集合平均预测的长江流域未来春季平均降水、潜在蒸散发及径流量较历史时期的变幅

Fig. 12 Spring precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff changes over the Yangtze River basin under two warming scenarios compared to the reference period based on multi-model ensemble mean

图13 基于多模式集合平均预测的长江流域未来夏季平均降水、潜在蒸散发及径流量较历史时期的变幅

Fig. 13 Summer precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff changes over the Yangtze River basin under two warming scenarios compared to the reference period based on multi-model ensemble mean

图14 基于多模式集合平均预测的长江流域未来秋、冬两季径流量较历史时期的变幅

Fig. 14 Autumn and winter runoff changes over the Yangtze River basin under two warming scenarios compared to the reference period based on multi-model ensemble mean