气候恢复力及其在极端天气气候灾害管理中的应用

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.144

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 167-177.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.144

气候恢复力及其在极端天气气候灾害管理中的应用

陈德亮¹,秦大河^2,³(),效存德^4,²,苏勃⁴

1 Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden
2 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室，兰州 730000
3 中国气象局，北京 100081
4 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京 100875

收稿日期:2018-10-29 修回日期:2019-01-24 出版日期:2019-03-30 发布日期:2019-03-30
作者简介:陈德亮,男,瑞典皇家科学院院士,哥德堡大学讲席教授/中国科学院外籍院士, deliang@gvc.gu.se
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金委创新研究群体项目“冰冻圈与全球变化”(41721091);国家自然科学基金委重大项目“中国冰冻圈服务功能形成机(41690140);北京师范大学引进人才项目“冰冻圈影响区承载力和恢复力研究”(12807-312232101)

Climate resilience and its implications for China

Deliang CHEN¹,Da-He QIN^2,³(),Cun-De XIAO^4,²,Bo SU⁴

1 Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden
2 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
3 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
4 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2018-10-29 Revised:2019-01-24 Online:2019-03-30 Published:2019-03-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

恢复力（resilience）一词自1973年进入生态学领域以来,在生态环境和自然资源管理以及社会经济可持续发展相关研究和实践中得到了广泛应用。随着人类对全球气候变化及其影响的认识不断加深,气候恢复力也逐渐成为应对气候变化的一个重要理念。本文首先系统阐述了气候恢复力概念的实质及与其密切相关的其他几个重要概念,然后在系统评估恢复力概念及其内涵的历史演变基础上,提出了一个实施气候恢复力建设的通用框架。尽管气候恢复力涉及行动主体的不同方面,而且还关系到不同部门和/或不同层次/尺度的优先选项,但希望此框架仍能对各部门、各尺度/层次的气候恢复力建设提供重要借鉴。最后以极端天气气候灾害管理为例,通过对英国皇家学会发布的《极端天气恢复力》报告进行述评,并对中国应对极端天气气候灾害的管理框架进行分析,进一步探讨了该框架的实用性。

关键词: 恢复力, 气候变化, 灾害风险, 适应, 可持续性

Abstract:

With the awareness of global climate change and its possible consequences for humanity, climate resilience has become a key concept in our efforts to deal with the challenges induced by climate change. This paper describes and discusses the essences of the climate resilience concept and other existing key concepts that are closely linked to it with a focus on their interlinkages. Based on this theoretical discussion and a systematic assessment of the historical evolution of the resilience concept, a framework to implement climate resilience is presented. Although climate resilience entails different aspects for actors and priorities for different sectors and/or at different levels/scales, the generic nature of the framework should be useful for practices aiming at achieving climate resilience for different levels/scales/sectors. Finally, taking extreme climate resilience as an example, we further illustrate the application of the framework through reviewing the report entitled Resilience to Extreme Weather released by The Royal Society and analyzing the management framework of China’s response to extreme weather and climate disasters.

Key words: Resilience, Climate change, Disaster risk, Adaptation, Sustainability

陈德亮,秦大河,效存德,苏勃. 气候恢复力及其在极端天气气候灾害管理中的应用[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(2): 167-177.

Deliang CHEN,Da-He QIN,Cun-De XIAO,Bo SU. Climate resilience and its implications for China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(2): 167-177.

图/表 6

图1 基于球杯模型的气候变化胁迫下系统的稳态转换（根据文献[17]修改）注：灰色球代表系统受胁迫前状态,黑色球代表系统遭受胁迫后状态,各杯谷代表系统不同稳态。

Fig. 1 Regime shifts under the climate change shock illustrated through ball-and-cup diagrams. (The light-grey ball at left represents the state of pre-shock system and the valleys represent regimes. In (a), the ball is in a valley, or regime, but an extreme weather shock can still push the ball, representing the system, into an alternative regime. In (b), a climate change in underlying processes has changed the dynamics of the system, in which one of the regimes has vanished). Consequently, the system changes and shifts into an alternative regime (Modified from [17])

图2 恢复力是对冲击的动态响应,引自[18]

Fig. 2 Resilience as a dynamic response to a shock, adopted from [18]

图3 可持续性三大支柱之间的关系(a) 3个相互作用的环路,(b) 3个嵌入的环路

Fig. 3 Evolution of sustainability concept. (a) the three interacting cycles, (b) the three embedding cycles

图4 适应和减缓是人类应对气候变化的必然选择,引自[26]

Fig. 4 Adaptation and mitigation are our decisions to do something about climate change, adopted from [26]

图5 一个实施气候恢复力行动的通用框架

Fig. 5 A generic framework for implementation of climate resilience actions

图6 气候变化背景下中国政府减灾和应急能力建设框架,引自[40]

Fig. 6 China constructing framework on disaster reduction and emergency response capacity in the context of climate change, adopted from [40]

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气候恢复力及其在极端天气气候灾害管理中的应用

Climate resilience and its implications for China

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