Estimation of China’s offshore photovoltaic power generation potential and analysis of driving factors

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.043

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the CMIP6 dataset, the changes in China’s offshore photovoltaic power potential (PVP) were projected in the near-future (2021-2060) and far-future (2061-2100) compared to the historical period (1975-2014) under two typical scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, and the potential impacts of climate change on future PVP were analyzed. The results are as followed. In the near-future period, the PVP potential under both scenarios shows a pattern of increasing in the northern part of the study area and decreasing in the southern part. The maximum increase in PVP under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is projected to increase by more than 3%, which is about 1.8 times higher than that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In the far-future period, the PVP shows an increase in almost the entire study area under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. In terms of monthly changes, PVP will increase throughout the year under the SSP1-2.6 scenario for both the near- and far- future, with the largest increases occurring in February 2.18% and 4.20%, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both periods show negative changes in PVP from June to September, with the most significant decrease in August. The effect of surface downwelling shortwave radiation on PVP changes is greater than that of temperature and is the main cause of PVP changes. The results of the study provide an important reference for offshore solar energy development and utilization as well as energy planning and management.

Key words: Climate change, Offshore China, Photovoltaic power generation, Power generation potential

ZENG Ying-Ting, TANG Zhen-Fei, WU Bin, ZHOU Ming-Zhu. Estimation of China’s offshore photovoltaic power generation potential and analysis of driving factors[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 830-838.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1 Basic information of the 9 global climate models

Fig. 1 Taylor diagrams of the simulated fields relative to the observed fields (ERA5) for the multi-year average radiation, temperature, and wind speed over the offshore China from 1975 to 2014. (a) Before QM bias correction, (b) after QM bias correction

Fig. 2 Changes in annual average photovoltaic power potential (PVP) in the near future (a, b) and far future (c, d) relative to the historical period under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. (Black dots indicate significance tests passed at the 0.05 level)

Fig. 3 Monthly change in future PVP under the SSP1-2.6 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b) scenarios relative to the multi-year average for the historical period

Fig. 4 PVP changes contributed by surface downwelling shortwave radiation in near- and far-future under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

Fig. 5 PVP changes contributed by near-surface air temperature in near- and far-future under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

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