Abstract:

Data were collected on more than 15.822 million flight movements at 271 civil aviation airports in China from 2022 to 2024. Based on the flight-by-flight, multi-stage carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission accounting method recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a high spatiotemporal resolution carbon emission inventory for China’s civil aviation was constructed, systematically revealing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from airports and flight routes. The results show that the CO₂ emissions of China’s civil aviation were 56.467 million tons, 108.261 million tons, and 134.381 million tons in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. Following the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown policies, China’s civil aviation carbon emissions surged by 91.7% year-on-year in 2023, significantly outpacing the average growth rate of global aviation carbon emissions over the same period. Nationwide, 84.5% of airports (218 airports) experienced an increase in carbon emissions, and all 16 core flight routes with annual CO₂ emissions exceeding 300 thousand tons saw an increase of more than 130%. In 2024, the growth rate of aviation carbon emissions declined to 24.1%, yet 60.9% of airports (157 airports) still recorded an increase in emissions. Based on the emission inventory, a benchmark-based aviation allowance allocation method was proposed under an intensity management framework, defining airlines as compliance entities and using aircraft CO₂ emissions per unit distance as the benchmark indicator. Under three scenarios of lenient, balanced, and strict regulation, the benchmark values for aviation allowance allocation in 2024 are set at 21.645, 20.844 and 19.927 t CO₂/km, respectively. Under this framework, Air China, Hainan Airlines, and Shandong Airlines have relatively high allowance deficits, whereas Tianjin Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, and Shenzhen Airlines have relatively high allowance surpluses. This method effectively incentivizes low-emission-intensity airlines while constraining high-emission-intensity airlines without restricting the development of the aviation industry. Furthermore, it is highly compatible with the existing benchmark-based approach in China’s national carbon market, providing a reference for the design of aviation allowance allocation methods when the aviation sector is incorporated into the national carbon market.

Key words: China’s civil aviation, Aviation carbon emission, Carbon emission inventory, Allowance allocation, Benchmark value