人类活动对中国东部极端热暴露事件的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口暴露度是衡量地区或国家面对极端天气气候事件风险的重要指标。虽然已有大量关于极端高温事件的归因工作，但关于人类活动对极端热暴露影响的研究仍很匮乏。本文基于国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）数据和全球网格化人口数据（GlobPoP)，以破纪录的2022年中国极端热暴露事件为例，将事件归因框架从事件本身拓展到事件影响层面，提出了人类活动影响极端热暴露事件的归因方法。以日最高气温超过35℃和40℃阈值定义的极端高温和人口暴露度（Tx35E和Tx40E）为指标，发现1990—2022年中国极端高温日数和极端热暴露持续增加，东部增长趋势最明显。偏差订正后CMIP6多模式归因分析表明，人类活动增加了类似中国东部2022年极端热暴露事件发生概率，使长江以南和长江以北初夏35℃极端热暴露事件的发生概率分别增加了1.4倍和2.4倍。人类活动还增加了极端热暴露度和暴露比例。盛夏高温日数越多，人类活动对热暴露度值和暴露比例的影响越明显。长江以南和长江以北分别有3.2%（46.5×10⁶人∙d）和1.2%（17.9×10⁶人∙d）的总人口因人类活动而额外暴露于盛夏35℃以上的极端高温中。对于Tx40E，虽然长江以南和长江以北40℃以上的极端高温事件较少，但人类活动仍加剧了热暴露事件的发生概率，并带来了额外的极端热暴露。

关键词: CMIP6, 极端高温, 热暴露, 极端事件归因

Abstract:

Heat exposure is a key indicator for assessing the risks of extreme weather and climate events. While substantial research has focused on the attribution of extreme heat events, studies on the attribution of heat exposure remain limited. By using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and global gridded population (GlobPoP), this paper proposes an attribution method for heat exposure, exemplified by the record-breaking 2022 extreme heat event in China. Using extreme heat and heat exposure to daily maximum temperatures exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ (Tx35E and Tx40E) as indicators, it’s found that both the number of extreme heat days and heat exposure have increased during 1990-2022, with the most pronounced growth in eastern China. Based on bias-corrected model data, human activities increase the probability of early summer Tx35E events in 2022 by 1.4 times in the south of the Yangtze River and 2.4 times in the north of the Yangtze River. Human activities also lead to additional extreme heat exposure and exposure ratio. In summer, with more extreme heat days, the influence of human activities on heat exposure and exposure ratio becomes more evident. Specifically, human activities lead to extra exposure of 46.5 million and 17.9 million person∙d (3.2% and 1.2% of the total population) to temperatures above 35℃ in the south and north of the Yangtze River, respectively. Although extreme heat events above 40℃ are relatively rare, human activities still increase the likelihood of Tx40E events and lead to additional heat exposure.

Key words: CMIP6, Extreme heat, Heat exposure, Extreme event attribution

罗皓月, 孙颖, 张玉霞. 人类活动对中国东部极端热暴露事件的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(5): 671-683.

LUO Hao-Yue, SUN Ying, ZHANG Yu-Xia. The influence of human activities on extreme heat exposure events in eastern China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(5): 671-683.

图/表 9

表1 本文使用的CMIP6模式

Table 1 The CMIP6 models used in this study

表2 极端高温和热暴露指标

Table 2 Extreme heat and heat exposure indicators

图1 1990—2022年5—8月中国Tx35D (a)、Tx40D (b)、Tx35E (c)和Tx40E (d)线性趋势的空间分布注：图中打点区域通过0.05水平的显著性检验，红色方框标注了东部区域（长江以南和长江以北）。

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of linear trends for Tx35D (a), Tx40D (b), Tx35E (c), and Tx40E (d) in China from May to August during 1990-2022

图2 1990—2022年5—8月中国东部区域平均人口(a)、Tx35D (b)、Tx35E (c)、Tx40D (d)和Tx40E (e)的距平时间序列（相对于1995—2014年）注：五角星代表最大值出现的年份。

Fig. 2 Changes of population (a), Tx35D (b), Tx35E (c), Tx40D (d), and Tx40E (e) in eastern China from May to August during 1990-2022 (relative to 1995-2014)

图3 2022年长江以南和长江以北初夏和盛夏Tx35E (a)和Tx40E (b)的观测值（相对于1995—2014年）

Fig. 3 Observed 2022 anomalies of Tx35E (a) and Tx40E (b) for early summer and summer in the south and north of the Yangtze River (relative to 1995-2014)

图4 模式偏差订正前后，1990—2022年中国东部初夏和盛夏Tx35D（a,b,e,f）和Tx40D（c,d,g,h）的原始序列

Fig. 4 Original time series of Tx35D (a, b, e, f) and Tx40D (c, d, g, h) for early summer and summer in eastern China from 1990 to 2022, before and after bias correction

图5 盛夏和初夏长江以南和长江以北Tx35E（a,b,e,f）和Tx40E（c,d,g,h）在ALL和NAT强迫下的概率密度分布（相对于1995—2014年）注：垂直线条表示2022年事件的观测值。

Fig. 5 Probability density distributions of Tx35E (a, b, e, f) and Tx40E (c, d, g, h) for early summer and summer in the south and north of the Yangtze River, under ALL and NAT forcing (relative to 1995-2014)

图6 不同强迫下2022年长江以南和长江以北初夏和盛夏极端热暴露事件Tx35E（a,c）和Tx40E（b,d）的发生概率与风险比及其95%不确定性区间

Fig. 6 Risk ratio, probability, and their 95% uncertainty intervals for extreme heat exposure events Tx35E (a, c) and Tx40E (b, d) in early summer and summer of 2022 in the south and north of the Yangtze River

图7 不同强迫下Tx35E（a,b,e,f）和Tx40E（c,d,g,h）热暴露值和人口暴露比例注：CMIP6多模式集合平均结果，垂直线条表示模式5%~95%百分位值。

Fig. 7 Heat exposure and exposure ratio under different forcings for Tx35E (a, b, e, f) and Tx40E (c, d, g, h). (CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean, vertical lines represent the 5%?95% model percentile range)

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