亚洲中高纬区生态系统对高温热浪暴露度的多模式集合预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.023

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于8个CMIP6模式的逐日最高气温以及逐月叶面积指数（LAI）、总初级生产力（GPP）和净初级生产力（NPP）数据，预估了3种情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5）下亚洲中高纬区高温热浪日数（HWD）的未来变化以及该区生态系统对其暴露度的响应。多模式集合（MME）预估结果表明：未来3种情景下整个亚洲中高纬区的HWD将增加。温室气体排放越多，HWD增加越显著。随着高温热浪的增加，未来LAI、GPP和NPP的暴露度也将增加。其中以SSP5-8.5情景下的增幅最大，LAI、GPP和NPP的暴露度到21世纪末期相比参考时期（1995—2014年）将分别增加12.1倍，14.9倍和14.3倍，特别是在勘察加半岛、中亚南部、中国新疆、韩国和日本等地。从影响陆地生态系统暴露度的因素来看，气候因子占主导作用，其次为非线性因子，生态因子的贡献最小。随着温室气体排放增多，从21世纪近期到末期，气候和生态因子的贡献逐渐减小，非线性因子的贡献不断增大，高温热浪对陆地生态系统的影响将更倾向于气候和生态系统的综合作用。

关键词: 高温热浪, 生态系统暴露度, 亚洲中高纬, SSP情景, 多模式集合预估

Abstract:

Based on daily maximum temperature, monthly leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net primary productivity (NPP) data from 8 CMIP6 models, the changes in heatwave days (HWD) and the ecosystem exposure to HWD were projected over mid-high latitude Asia under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The ensemble projection result indicates an increase in HWD across the mid-high latitude Asian region, with larger increase under higher emission scenario. As the HWD increases, the exposure of LAI, GPP, and NPP to HWD is also projected to increase over mid-high latitude Asia. The largest increase is anticipated under SSP5-8.5. Compared to the reference period (1995-2014), the LAI, GPP, and NPP exposure tends to increase by 12.1 times, 14.9 times, and 14.3 times by the end of the 21st century, respectively. The projected increases are particularly pronounced in the regions such as the Kamchatka Peninsula, southern Central Asia, Xinjiang in China, South Korea, and Japan. In terms of factors influencing the ecosystem exposure, the climate factor is the most dominant contributor, followed by the nonlinear interaction factor, while the contribution from the ecological factor is minimal. With increased greenhouse gas emissions, the contribution of both the climate factor and the ecological factor gradually weakens from the near term to the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the influence of the nonlinear factor gradually strengthens. Consequently, the impact of heatwaves on the terrestrial ecosystem over mid-high latitude Asia will increasingly reflect the combined effects of climatic and ecological interactions.

Key words: Heatwaves, Ecosystem exposure, Mid-high latitude Asia, SSP scenario, Multi-model ensemble projection

孙晓玲, 谢文欣, 周波涛. 亚洲中高纬区生态系统对高温热浪暴露度的多模式集合预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(5): 659-670.

SUN Xiao-Ling, XIE Wen-Xin, ZHOU Bo-Tao. Ensemble projection of changes in the ecosystem exposure to heatwaves over mid-high latitude Asia[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(5): 659-670.

图/表 12

表1 8个CMIP6模式的基本信息

Table 1 Basic information of 8 CMIP6 models used

图1 研究区示意图

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the study area

图2 观测(a)和MME模拟(b)的亚洲中高纬区1995—2014年平均HWD的气候态分布

Fig. 2 Climatological distribution of observed (a) and MME simulated (b) HWD during 1995-2014

图3 CMIP6模式模拟1995—2014年亚洲中高纬区年平均HWD气候态空间分布的泰勒图

Fig. 3 Taylor diagram of CMIP6 models referring the climatological distribution of annual mean HWD over mid-high latitude Asia during 1995-2014

图4 1995—2014年观测和MME模拟的亚洲中高纬区年平均HWD距平百分率时间序列

Fig. 4 Time series of observed and MME simulated annual mean percentage of HWD anomaly over mid-high latitude Asia during 1995-2014

图5 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下亚洲中高纬区区域平均的HWD变化（相对于1995—2014年，下同）注：时间序列进行20 a滑动平均，阴影表示模式间±标准差范围。

Fig. 5 Temporal changes in HWD averaged over mid-high latitude Asian under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (relative to 1995-2014, the same below). (Time series are smoothed with a 20-year running mean filter, and shadings represent the ranges of two standard deviations of model simulations)

图6 MME预估的SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下到21世纪近期（2021—2040年)、中期（2041—2060年）和末期（2081—2100年）亚洲中高纬度地区的HWD变化注：打点区域表示通过0.05的显著性检验。

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of the MME projected changes in HWD during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. (Areas with the changes above the 0.05 significance level are dotted)

图7 三种情景下亚洲中高纬区陆地生态系统LAI暴露度(a)、GPP暴露度(b)和NPP暴露度(c)的距平百分率时间序列注：时间序列进行20 a滑动平均，阴影表示模式间±标准差范围。

Fig. 7 Temporal changes in percentage anomalies of LAI exposure (a), GPP exposure (b), and NPP exposure (c) averaged over mid-high latitude Asia under three scenarios. (Time series are smoothed with a 20-year running mean filter, and shadings represent the ranges of two standard deviations of model simulations)

图8 MME预估的SSP1-2.6情景下到21世纪近期、中期和末期亚洲中高纬度地区LAI暴露度、GPP暴露度和NPP暴露度的距平百分率注：打点区域表示通过0.05的显著性检验。

Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of the MME projected percentage anomalies of LAI exposure, GPP exposure, and NPP exposure during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 under SSP1-2.6. (Areas with the changes above the 0.05 significance level are dotted)

图9 同图8，但为SSP2-4.5情景注：打点区域表示通过0.05的显著性检验。

Fig. 9 Same as Fig. 8, but under SSP2-4.5

图10 同图8，但为SSP5-8.5情景

Fig. 10 Same as Fig. 8, but under SSP5-8.5

图11 三种情景下到21世纪近期、中期和末期时，气候因子、非线性因子和生态因子对亚洲中高纬度区LAI暴露度、GPP暴露度和NPP暴露度变化的贡献

Fig. 11 Contribution of climate factor, nonlinear interaction, and ecological factor to projected changes in LAI exposure, GPP exposure, and NPP exposure averaged over mid-high latitude Asia during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 under three scenarios

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