“双碳”目标下中国碳排放控制目标分解思路研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.311

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于中国能耗“双控”向碳“双控”转变的趋势分析，识别了转型中存在的机制协调、任务分解和基础条件等挑战，梳理了国内外碳排放控制目标分解经验。基于中国“十五五”更适合采用全国碳强度控制目标，从公平性、透明度、成本有效性、数据可获性、上下协调难度、目标完成风险度等角度，提出并对比了“十五五”时期碳排放控制目标地区分解的三种思路和实施方案，建议开展基于地方自主确定目标形式的“两上两下”的国家-地方双向磋商目标制定机制，并最终提出相关政策建议。

关键词: 双碳目标, 分解, 国家, 地方

Abstract:

Through the trend analysis of China’s transition from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon emissions, three challenges in the transition are identified including mechanism coordination, target decomposition and basic conditions, and domestic and international experiences of decomposition of carbon emission control targets are sorted out. In China’s “15th Five-Year Plan”, it is more suitable to adopt the national carbon intensity control target. From six perspectives of fairness, transparency, cost effectiveness, data availability, coordination difficulty, and target completion risk, three approaches and implementation plans are put forward and compared for regional decomposition of carbon emission control targets during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. The first approach is to set target for each province separately from top to down, continuing the experiences during the 13th Five-Year Plan and the 14th Five-Year Plan periods. The second approach is to develop a “two up and two down” national-regional iterative communication target setting mechanism based on the local determined targets. The third approach is to set a cap for the national carbon market and decomposed provincial targets for non-carbon markets. Based on comparison, it is recommended to adopt the second one currently. Relevant policy suggestions are put forward at last.

Key words: Dual-carbon goal, Decomposition, Nation, Region

周丽, 章姝, 王美涵, 黄俊灵. “双碳”目标下中国碳排放控制目标分解思路研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(4): 529-540.

ZHOU Li, ZHANG Shu, WANG Mei-Han, HUANG Jun-Ling. Research on China’s carbon emission control decomposition methods under the “dual-carbon” goal[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 529-540.

图/表 5

表1 国内文献分配选择的部分模型方法

Table 1 Selected modeling approaches for allocation choices in national literature

图1 欧盟温室气体排放总量目标分解注：LULUCF为土地利用、土地利用变化及林业。

Fig. 1 Breakdown of EU’s aggregate GHG emission targets

图2 德国温室气体排放总量目标分解注：本图根据德国温室气体清单整理，百分数代表目标减排量相较1990年排放量下降比例。

Fig. 2 Breakdown of Germany’s aggregate GHG emission targets

图3 法国首批三期碳预算分解情况[62] 注：以CO2排放当量计，图中数字单位为Mt。

Fig. 3 Breakdown of France’s first three carbon budgets[62]

表2 全国碳排放控制目标分解思路比较

Table 2 Comparison of decomposition ideas for national carbon emission control targets

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