气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 70-83.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.115
收稿日期:2025-05-29
修回日期:2025-07-03
出版日期:2026-01-30
发布日期:2025-11-11
通讯作者:
陈文颖,女,教授,作者简介:吕晋宁,女,博士研究生,基金资助:
LYU Jin-Ning(
), ZHANG Shu, CHEN Wen-Ying(
)
Received:2025-05-29
Revised:2025-07-03
Online:2026-01-30
Published:2025-11-11
摘要:
碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)是实现碳中和目标的“兜底技术”。文中分析了中国CCUS发展现状,指出虽在政策支持、示范项目数量与规模方面取得进展,但仍面临技术成本高、商业模式不成熟、产业链布局不完善、政策配套与市场机制不健全等挑战。国际分析显示,全球及各国/地区CCUS部署规模与气候目标所需规模存在巨大鸿沟。发达国家凭借顶层战略、法规标准、财税激励和市场机制等模式,项目商业化发展更为成熟。国际典型项目经验凸显政策驱动、市场创新、产业链管理、技术集成与国际合作的重要性。鉴于此,为推动中国CCUS规模化发展,提出以下建议:推进技术研发,实现降本增效,整合产业链条,健全政策法规,完善市场机制,同时深化国际合作,构建人才队伍。
吕晋宁, 张枢, 陈文颖. 碳中和目标下中国CCUS发展进程与国际经验启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 70-83.
LYU Jin-Ning, ZHANG Shu, CHEN Wen-Ying. The development process of CCUS in China towards carbon neutrality: insights from international experience[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 70-83.
图1 2024年中国分行业碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)减排成本与其他路径减排成本和国内外碳价比较
Fig. 1 Comparison of sectoral Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) abatement costs and other emission reduction pathway costs in China with domestic and international carbon prices in 2024
图2 全球CCS发展轨迹(2017—2024年)、预期规模与实现气候目标所需贡献 注:2017—2024年为历史数据。气候目标所需2030年CCS贡献是指为完成不同气候目标,每年需要通过CCS技术实现的CO2捕集并封存速率[19-20]。IEA NZE是国际能源署(IEA)净零排放情景。
Fig. 2 Global CCS development trajectory, expected scale, and required contribution to achieve climate targets
图3 主要国家/地区当前CCUS规模、未来规模及减排贡献 注:已运营捕集规模,美国、欧盟、日本统计CCS项目[21],中国统计CCUS项目[4];当前发展态势下的未来规模,美国、欧盟、日本根据政策目标确定未来规模,缺少数据的年份使用线性插值补充;中国2030年规模为假设现有开发、在建和投运项目均按计划运营时的年捕集量,由于缺少明确政策目标数据,2040—2060年规模参考欧美未来规模平均增长率计算[23-26];未来CCUS减排贡献:实现相应的气候目标所需的CCUS减排量,误差线表示预测范围[1,27]。
Fig. 3 Current scale and projected future scale of CCUS and potential future contributions to emission reductions
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