基于SPAMC-Methane模型的中国甲烷减排路径研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.044

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为影响仅次于二氧化碳的短寿命温室气体，甲烷减排逐步从科学共识上升为政策共识，成为全球气候谈判焦点议题和国际合作的重点领域。文中比较分析了全球及我国甲烷排放趋势、特征及已有减排行动，并在“中国应对气候变化战略规划评估模型”的基础上自主构建了甲烷排放预测模块（SPAMC-Methane)，并设置了基准情景、能源转型情景、甲烷低排放情景共三类情景，分析了到2060年的中国甲烷排放趋势、减排潜力和路径。结果表明，此前相关研究对我国甲烷排放达峰时间预测偏早，峰值预测相对偏低。基于最新可得的数据，在能源转型情景下，甲烷排放预计2032年达峰，峰值约为7580万t；在甲烷低排放情景下，通过有效行动力度提升，甲烷排放有望在2025年前达峰，峰值约为7060万t，到2035年和2060年中国甲烷排放较峰值分别减少约12.3%和53.7%，与基准情景相比，能源转型和技术强化减排措施贡献分别约为62.9%和37.1%，从减排领域看，煤炭开采、固体废物处理部门减排合计贡献约77%。

关键词: 甲烷, 排放特征, 碳中和, 能源转型, 低排放, 减排路径

Abstract:

As the second largest greenhouse gas after CO₂ and the most important short-lived greenhouse gas, methane emission reduction has gradually become a consensus from scientific cognition to action, becoming the focus of global climate negotiations and the key area of international climate cooperation. In order to support China’s methane emission reduction work, firstly, the global and China’s methane emission trends, characteristics and existing emission reduction actions were compared and analyzed. Then, a methane model (SPAMC-Methane) on the basis of Strategy and Planning Assessment Model for Climate Change in China was established to analyze the methane emission trend, reduction potential and path of China from 2022 to 2060 under the baseline scenario, energy transformation scenario and methane low-emission scenario, with 2022 as the benchmark. The results show that the methane emission is expected to peak in 2032 at 75.80 Mt under the energy transformation scenario, and before 2025 at 70.60 Mt under the methane low-emission scenario. Under the methane low-emission scenario, the methane emission will decrease by 12.3% in 2035 and 53.7% in 2060 from the peak level. Compared with the baseline scenario, the emission reduction contribution of the energy transition and technology enhancement in 2060 are about 62.9% and 37.1%, respectively under the methane low-emission scenario, and about 77% of the emission reduction will come from the coal mining and solid waste treatment sectors.

Key words: Methane, Emission characteristics, Carbon neutralization, Energy transformation, Low-emission, Emission reduction path

解瑞丽, 柴麒敏. 基于SPAMC-Methane模型的中国甲烷减排路径研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 593-610.

XIE Rui-Li, CHAI Qi-Min. Research on China’s methane emission reduction path based on SPAMC-Methane model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 593-610.

图/表 10

图1 全球及主要国家甲烷排放量变化趋势注：中国及主要国家排放量对应左侧坐标轴，全球排放量对应右侧坐标轴；NCCC指中国历次气候变化国家信息通报，EDGAR v8.0来源于全球大气研究排放数据库，全球及其他国家数据均来源于EDGAR v8.0。

Fig. 1 Methane emission trends of the world and major countries

图2 中国分部门甲烷排放量变化趋势注：本图数据依据中国历次气候变化国家信息通报（NCCC)；“其他”包含工业生产过程、农业生物质焚烧及土地利用变化和林业甲烷排放。

Fig. 2 Trends in China’s sectoral methane emissions

图3 全球及主要国家甲烷排放结构注：EDGAR v8.0不含土地利用变化和林业领域甲烷排放（包括湿地、淹没土地甲烷排放等）。图中除了1)和2)，其他皆来源于EDGAR v8.0数据库中2022年的排放数据；1)来源于美国EPA数据库中美国2021年的排放数据；2)来源于中国NCCC数据库中中国2018年的排放数据。

Fig. 3 Methane emission structure of the world and major countries

图4 2022年中国甲烷排放强度与世界及欧美对比注：甲烷数据来源于EDGAR v8.0，人口、GDP数据来源于世界银行。

Fig. 4 Methane emission intensities of China vs. the world, EU, and US in 2022

图5 中国煤层气、煤矿瓦斯抽采利用情况

Fig. 5 Extraction and utilization of coal bed methane and coal mine methane in China

图6 2005—2022年中国生活垃圾处理情况

Fig. 6 Domestic waste disposal in China, 2005-2022

图7 中国应对气候变化战略规划评估——甲烷模型（SPAMC-Methane）框架

Fig. 7 Strategy and planning assessment model for climate change in China: methane (SPAMC-Methane)

表1 不同情景下甲烷排放关键驱动因子对比

Table 1 Key driving factors for methane emissions under different scenarios

图8 不同情景下的中国甲烷排放趋势[10?-12] 注：WRI指世界资源研究所；THU指清华大学；LBNL指劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室；NCSC指国家气候战略中心，即本研究数据。

Fig. 8 Trends of methane emissions in China under different scenarios [10?-12]

图9 2035及2060年中国甲烷减排路径

Fig. 9 Methane emission reduction path of China in 2035 and 2060

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