碳中和目标下中国碳捕集、利用与封存源汇匹配与集群布局研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.153

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 解决碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）的源汇匹配问题能够为有序开展CCUS集群布局提供科学依据。研究中在充分考虑运输距离、捕集-运输-封存和利用成本的基础上，以碳中和目标为减排约束条件，基于CCUS部署成本最小化原则，构建了CCUS源汇匹配模型，并对考虑碳利用场景前后的CCUS最优源汇匹配路径和集群布局方案的经济成本进行了比较分析。结果发现，实现碳中和目标要求CCUS的年捕集规模需达到513.33 Mt，与仅考虑咸水层封存、气田封存和CO₂强化石油开采为储碳方式的情景相比，考虑钢渣矿化利用和化学转化技术后，需要进行CCUS技术改造的碳源数量将从332个增加至434个，涉及碳汇数量从49个增加至276个，运输管道修建长度由21237.96 km增加至31473.33 km，部署CCUS在30年规划期内的总减排成本将从7604亿美元下降至5141亿美元，单位减排成本将从49.38美元/t CO₂减少至33.38美元/t CO₂。碳利用技术示范能够优化集群布局方案，发挥集群规模优势，降低布局成本，并有助于形成特色集群，其中苏-鲁集群、蒙-宁-陕-晋-冀集群是未来CCUS部署的重点区域，在环渤海湾集群、东北集群部署CCUS最具可行性。

关键词: 碳中和, 碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）, 源汇匹配, 集群布局

Abstract:

Solving the problem of source-sink matching of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) can provide scientific support for the optimal layout of CCUS clusters. Based on the full consideration of transport distance, capture-transport-storage and utilization costs, a CCUS source-sink matching model was constructed with the carbon neutrality target as the emission reduction constraint and based on the principle of minimizing the cost of CCUS deployment. A comparative analysis was conducted on the optimal CCUS source-sink matching pathways and the economic costs of cluster layout options before and after considering the carbon utilization scenarios. The results show that achieving the carbon neutrality target requires the annual capture scale of CCUS to reach 513.33 Mt CO₂. Compared with the scenario that only considers CO₂ sequestration in saline aquifer, gas field and CO₂-EOR, the number of carbon sources that need to be transformed by CCUS will increase from 332 to 434, the number of carbon sinks involved will increase from 49 to 276, and the length of the transport pipeline construction will increase from 21237.96 km to 31473.33 km, assuming the consideration of the mineralization of steel slag and the chemical conversion technology using CO₂. The total abatement cost of deploying CCUS over the 30-year planning period would decrease from $760.4 billion to $514.1 billion, and the unit abatement cost would decrease from $49.38/t CO₂ to $33.38/t CO₂. The demonstration of carbon utilization technology can optimize the cluster layout options, play the cluster scale advantage, reduce the layout cost, and help form characteristic clusters. The Su-Lu cluster and Meng-Ning-Shaan-Jin-Ji cluster are the primary regions for CCUS deployment in the future, and the deployment of CCUS in the Bohai Bay and Northeast clusters is the most feasible.

Key words: Carbon neutrality, Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), Source-sink matching, Cluster layout

苏小宁, 邱纪翔, 栾利民, 梅应丹. 碳中和目标下中国碳捕集、利用与封存源汇匹配与集群布局研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(3): 373-386.

SU Xiao-Ning, QIU Ji-Xiang, LUAN Li-Min, MEI Ying-Dan. Source-sink matching and cluster layout of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in China towards carbon neutrality[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 373-386.

图/表 7

表1 源汇匹配模型参数

Table 1 Description of source-sink matching model parameters and variables

图1 2022年排放源分布和CO2排放特征注：图(a)基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2023)2767号的标准地图制作，底图无修改；下同。图(d)中饼图表示各区域排放源数量占比。

Fig. 1 Distribution of emission sources and CO2 emission characteristics in 2022

图2 碳汇分布和封存能力特征

Fig. 2 Distribution of carbon sinks and storage capacity characteristics

图3 实现碳中和目标的最优源汇匹配路径（情景1）

Fig. 3 Optimal source-sink matching pathways to achieve carbon neutrality under scenario 1

图4 实现碳中和目标的最优源汇匹配路径（情景2）注：(a)图展示了CCUS各环节技术在不同应用场景的成本构成；(b)图展示了情景1所形成的各集群布局成本及相应的捕集、运输、封存和利用成本构成；下同。

Fig. 4 Optimal source-sink matching pathways to achieve carbon neutrality under scenario 2

图5 CCUS各环节成本(a)与集群布局成本(b)（情景1）

Fig. 5 Costs of each technological segment (a) of CCUS and cluster layout costs (b) under scenario 1

图6 CCUS各环节成本(a)与集群布局成本(b)（情景2）

Fig. 6 Costs of each technological segment (a) of CCUS and cluster layout costs (b) under scenario 2

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