电力系统气候适应性的探索、挑战与展望

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.132

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候加速变暖导致极端天气气候事件频发，带来高频次、大范围、强破坏的停电事故和缺电事件，给电力系统安全稳定运行敲响了警钟。随着温控负荷迅速增长和新能源并网规模不断攀升，电力系统气候敏感性持续增强。为确保电力系统安全稳定运行和促进电力低碳转型，提升电力系统气候适应性迫在眉睫。文中系统梳理了电力系统气候适应性研究进展，提出了一种电力系统气候适应性分析框架，分析了源、网、荷侧电力资源的气候适应性特点，讨论了电力系统运行和规划中气候适应性提升面临的挑战，展望了新型电力系统气候适应性提升路径。建议强化电力系统气候适应性的宏观政策引导，不断加强基础理论研究、创新关键技术、优化资源配置、完善管理机制，通过多元化方式提升新型电力系统气候适应性。

关键词: 气候适应性, 新型电力系统, 评估框架, 运行调度, 电力规划

Abstract:

The rapid acceleration of global warming has led to an increase in extreme weather events, resulting in widespread and highly destructive power outages and shortages that occur with alarming frequency. This has prompted concerns about the safe and stable operation of the power system. With the accelerated transition of new power system, the scale of climate-sensitive grid-connected renewable energy sources continues to expand rapidly, posing unprecedented challenges to the power system. Climate resilience has become an essential characteristic of the system, crucial to ensuring its safe operation and vital to promoting the low-carbon transition of energy resources and mitigating climate change. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the current research status of climate resilience in power systems. It introduces a novel analytical framework for assessing climate resilience and explores the climate resilience characteristics of power resources at the source, grid, and load levels. Additionally, it highlights the challenges associated with enhancing climate resilience in power system operation and planning and outlines potential pathways. It is suggested to strengthen macro policy guidance on climate resilient power system, continuously reinforce basic theory research, innovate key technologies, optimize resource allocation, and improve management mechanisms to enhance the climate resilience of new power system through diversified ways.

Key words: Climate resilience, New power system, Assessment framework, Operation and dispatching, Power system planning

袁家海, 彭可欣, 张浩楠, 张健. 电力系统气候适应性的探索、挑战与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(2): 256-272.

YUAN Jia-Hai, PENG Ke-Xin, ZHANG Hao-Nan, ZHANG Jian. Climate resilience of power systems: explorations, challenges and prospects[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 256-272.

图/表 5

图1 脆弱性、风险以及气候适应性之间的关系

Fig. 1 Relationship between vulnerability, risk and climate resilience

图2 已知、未知和不可知事件之间的三重区别

Fig. 2 The triple distinction among known, unknown, and unknowable events

图3 电力系统气候适应性评估框架

Fig. 3 Power system climate resilience assessment framework

表1 不同电源及其适应性提升策略

Table 1 Different power sources and their resilience enhancement strategies

图4 运行和规划中的系统气候适应性提升

Fig. 4 Climate resilience enhancement of system in operation and planning

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