降碳目标分解方案及评估调整机制研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.094

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

降碳目标分解方案及评估调整对我国实现“双碳”目标尤为重要。本研究首先提出兼顾公平、效率、可持续、可行性及差异性原则的降碳目标分解方法，在此基础上建立考虑基准值和调整值的分解模型，其中调整值按照分解原则由人均GDP、重点项目碳排放等6个指标加权求和确定。其次对成都市碳强度下降目标分解到各区（市）县进行案例研究，给出了“十四五”期间不同区（市）县碳强度下降目标，分为19.0%、19.5%、20.0%、20.5%、21.0%这5个等级，并分析导致不同区域碳强度下降目标差异的原因。最后为推动分解方案的落实，进一步提出了实现既定降碳目标的评估调整机制。

关键词: 降碳目标, 分解方案, 指标体系, 评估调整机制

Abstract:

The decomposition plan and evaluation adjustment of carbon reduction targets are crucial for achieving China’s goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In this paper, a decomposition method was proposed considering the principles of fairness, efficiency, sustainability, feasibility, and differentiation. On this basis, a decomposition model considering the reference value and adjustment value was established. The adjustment value was determined by the weighted sum of six indicators, including carbon emissions of key projects, according to the decomposition principle. Secondly, a case study was conducted on the decomposition of carbon intensity reduction targets in Chengdu to various districts. The 14th Five-Year Plan period’s carbon intensity reduction targets for these districts were categorized into five levels: 19.0%, 19.5%, 20.0%, 20.5%, and 21.0%. Furthermore, an analysis was provided on the reasons behind the variations in carbon intensity reduction targets among different regions. Finally, to promote the implementation of the decomposition plan, an evaluation and adjustment mechanism was proposed to achieve the established carbon reduction goals.

Key words: Carbon reduction targets, Decomposition plan, Indicator system, Evaluation and adjustment mechanism

李伟起, 黄鹤, 张忠伟, 李重言, 李政. 降碳目标分解方案及评估调整机制研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(2): 246-255.

LI Wei-Qi, HUANG He, ZHANG Zhong-Wei, LI Zhong-Yan, LI Zheng. Research on the decomposition plan and evaluation adjustment mechanism of carbon reduction targets[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 246-255.

图/表 7

图1 研究框架图

Fig. 1 Research framework diagram

表1 降碳目标分解的原则、指标及权重

Table 1 The principles, indicators, and weights for decomposing carbon reduction goals

图2 2020年各区（市）县GDP总量与2020—2025年GDP增量目标

Fig. 2 The total GDP of each district in 2020 and the GDP increment target from 2020 to 2025

图3 2020年各区（市）县分能源品种能源消费量

Fig. 3 Energy consumption structure of energy varieties of each district in 2020

图4 2020年各区（市）县碳排放总量及碳排放强度

Fig. 4 Total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of each district in 2020

表2 降碳目标分解结果

Table 2 Decomposition results of carbon reduction goals

图5 各指标碳强度下降目标的调整值

Fig. 5 Adjustment values for carbon intensity reduction targets of various indicators

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