Variation of extreme precipitation in Lancang River basin under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.126

Abstract

Abstract:

Lancang River is one of the few cross-border rivers in China, and there are many torrential rains and flood disasters in the basin. Therefore, the scientific assessment of the changes of extreme precipitation in the Lancang River basin under the future global warming scenario can provide some scientific guidance for the countries along the Lancang-Mekong River to jointly manage the basin water resources and resist natural disasters. Based on the rainfall data of five global climate models under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Comparison Program (ISI-MIP), the simulation ability of extreme precipitation was enhanced in the Lancang River basin through bias correction. A total of 9 indicators, such as precipitation intensity, daily maximum precipitation, and heavy precipitation, were used to evaluate the changes of extreme precipitation in the Lancang River basin under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in the future, and the uncertainty and reliability of the results were also studied. The main conclusions are as follows. With the increase of global temperature, the annual precipitation and extreme precipitation in Lancang River basin show an increasing trend, in which extremely strong precipitation increase the most by 37% and 75%, respectively under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. Compared with the historical benchmark period, the increase of extreme precipitation index at 2.0℃ is obviously larger than that at 1.5℃, and the amplification of the former is almost twice that of the later. In the future global warming scenarios, the wet season in the Lancang River basin will become more humid, while the dry season drier. The concentration of precipitation in the Lancang River basin will increase, which increases the risk of flood disasters in the wet season. The future extreme precipitation simulation from the ISI-MIP climate models has great uncertainty over the Lancang River basin, which is greater under 2.0℃ global warming than that under 1.5℃, but the reliability of increasing extreme precipitation relative to the historical benchmark period for the former is higher.

Key words: Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2.0℃, Extreme precipitation, ISI-MIP, Lancang River basin, Uncertainty

DING Kai-Xi, ZHANG Li-Ping, SHE Dun-Xian, ZHANG Qin, XIANG Jun-Wen. Variation of extreme precipitation in Lancang River basin under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 466-479.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 Topographic map of Lancang River basin

Table 1 Evaluation of simulation ability of extreme precipitation in Lancang River basin by multi-model ensemble (MME) after correction

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation index in Lancang River basin from 1961 to 2005

Fig. 3 Time-varying process of various extreme precipitation indexes under different scenarios in Lancang River basin

Fig. 4 Box map of various extreme precipitation indexes under different scenarios in Lancang River basin

Fig. 5 Spatial variation of extreme precipitation indexes under different scenarios in Lancang River basin

Fig. 6 Probability density distribution of extreme precipitation in Lancang River basin based on kernel density estimation

Fig. 7 Characteristics of Gini coefficient of precipitation in Lancang River basin in different periods

Fig. 8 Spatial variation of Gini coefficient of precipitation under different warming scenarios in Lancang River basin

Fig. 9 Extreme precipitation difference coefficients in Lancang River basin under different warming scenarios

Fig. 10 Variation of signal-to-noise ratio of extreme precipitation in Lancang River basin under different warming scenarios

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