Analysis of the impact of healthy diet on agricultural methane emissions

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.071

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the inventory method, the agricultural CH₄ emissions in China from 1981 to 2060 were calculated, and the agricultural CH₄ emission reduction effects of five healthy dietary patterns were analyzed based on scenario design. Results show that CH₄ emissions from agriculture in China increased from 18.46 Mt to 22.23 Mt from 1981 to 2021, with enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and freshwater aquaculture being the main sources of CH₄ emissions. Under the baseline scenario, China’s agricultural CH₄ emissions will reach a peak of 24.91 Mt in 2036, and the cumulative emissions from 2022 to 2060 are 940.40 Mt. The five healthy dietary scenarios will promote the early peak of CH₄ in China before 2030 (2021-2027), and the cumulative emission reduction potential from 2022 to 2060 is 170.22-343.31 Mt (18%-37%) CH₄. Among them, the healthy dietary scenario with relatively less consumption of animal sources food has greater CH₄ emission reduction potential.

Key words: Agriculture, Methane, Emission path, Scenario prediction, Mitigation potential

HUA Er-Shi, CHEN Min-Peng, CUI Yan-Rong. Analysis of the impact of healthy diet on agricultural methane emissions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 559-572.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1 Basic assumptions of BAU scenario

Fig. 2 Production of some agricultural products of BAU scenario

Table 1 The actual dietary structure (2020) in China and five healthy dietary structures

Fig. 3 Analysis of methane emission paths and nuclear density in Chinese agriculture

Fig. 4 The proportion of CH4 emissions to non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in China

Fig. 5 Analysis of the emission paths and nuclear density of methane in Chinese agricultural sectors

Fig. 6 Methane emission reduction potential and emission structure in Chinese agricultural sectors

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