Simulation research on co-controlling pollutants and greenhouse gases emission in China's transportation sector

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.214

Abstract

Abstract:

It's of great significance to conduct research on the integrated control of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the transportation sector, which will facilitate the realization of integrated management of energy, environment and climate change. In this study, the co-control of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the transportation sector was chosen as the starting point to carry out future transport demand forecasts for different sub-sectors in China, such as road transportation, railways, civil aviation, inland shipping, and pipelines. The LEAP model was used to build BAU scenario, pollution reduction scenario, green low-carbon scenario, and enhanced low-carbon scenario on emission reduction technologies and policy choices. The simulation results indicate that energy consumption in the transportation sector will peak in 2037 under the enhanced low-carbon scenario and carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2035. Under the green low-carbon scenario, carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2040. Besides, it is essential to reduce air pollutant emissions from road transportation sector by taking effective actions, including eliminating old cars, promoting road-to-rail freight, encouraging road-to-waterway freight, and so on. Moreover, some energy structure optimization measures such as the development of hydrogen fuel and bio-jet fuel technology will further reduce pollutant emissions from the transportation sector. To achieve green and low-carbon development in the transportation sector, energy saving and carbon reduction measures, coordinated emission reduction measures should be respectively implemented for passenger and freight transport, and comprehensive policies are considered as an important guarantee for achieving peak goals in energy consumption and carbon emissions.

Key words: Transportation sector, Air pollution, Greenhouse gas, Co-control, LEAP model

FENG Xiang-Zhao, ZHAO Meng-Xue, WANG Min, DU Xiao-Lin, TIAN Chun-Xiu, GAO Ji. Simulation research on co-controlling pollutants and greenhouse gases emission in China's transportation sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 279-288.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 Framework of transportation sector structural analysis

Fig. 2 Forecast of China's traffic demand during 2015-2050

Table 1 Description of scenario settings in passenger transport

Table 2 Description of scenario settings in freight transport

Table 3 Basic annual of energy consumption and CO2 emission accounting

Fig. 3 Transportation energy consumption trends in different scenarios during 2015-2050

Fig. 4 Changes of traffic energy structure during 2015-2050

Fig. 5 Energy consumption ratios of different sectors under multiple scenarios in 2050

Fig. 6 CO2 emissions of traffic under different scenarios during 2015-2050

Fig. 7 Percentage of CO2 emission of various sectors under multiple scenarios in 2050 (unit: %)

Fig. 8 NOx emission characteristics of various sectors under different scenarios in 2050

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