Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway for China’s transport sector

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.052

Abstract

Abstract:

The transport sector has high potential for carbon emission growth in the mid- and long- term and has great impact on China’s low carbon transition. A bottom-up energy system model PECE-LIU2017 which includes detailed transport sector module was developed in this study. Three scenarios were developed to discuss different future transport development pathways: the business as usual (BAU) scenario, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario and the low-carbon scenario. The low-carbon transition of the transport sector was explored by investigating the main driving factors trend and the impact. The results showed that China’s energy service demand for transport sector will continue to grow in the future. In NDC scenario, CO₂ emissions in transport sector will peak at around the year of 2038 while in low-carbon scenario, CO₂ emissions will be reduced dramatically from 3 billion tons in BAU to less than 600 million tons by 2050 and peak at around 2030, which will contribute 17.5% of total mitigations to the whole energy system. The total capital investment needs for transport sector during 2016-2050 will be around 15.7 trillion Yuan (RMB), accounting for 53% of national low carbon capital investment demand. By taking measures to improve fuel efficiency, promote new energy vehicles and encourage public travel, the transport sector is able to decarbonize its development pathway in a technical feasible way, and make a great contribution to realize China’s long-term low carbon development strategy.

Key words: Transport sector, Mitigation path, Bottom-up model, LEAP model, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Jun-Ling LIU,Yi-He SUN,Ke WANG,Ji ZOU,Ying KONG. Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway for China’s transport sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(5): 513-521.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Transport model structure

Fig. 2 Structure of road transport model

Table 1 Assumptions for China’s future travel demand and passenger turnover

Table 2 China’s future passenger turnover structure by scenario

Table 3 China’s future freight turnover structure

Fig. 3 Future vehicle ownership structure

Table 4 Shares of sale and ownership for China’s electric vehicles in low carbon scenario in 2050

Fig. 4 CO2 emissions for national and transport sector by scenario

Fig. 5 Technology roadmap of transport sector

Fig. 6 Capital investment needs of transport sector in low-carbon scenario

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