京津冀城市群气候变化及影响适应研究综述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文对2000年以来京津冀城市群气候变化及影响适应的研究成果进行了综述。研究表明：20世纪60年代以来，京津冀城市群年平均气温和极端高温指数显著升高，年降水量波动减少，到21世纪10年代，极端强降水指数降低。京津冀气候变化是全球变暖和城市化共同作用的结果，城市化加速了京津冀变暖趋势，增加了极端高温和极端强降水的频率和强度，气候风险高。未来京津冀城市群协同发展，面临高温热浪、强降水、水资源短缺和海平面上升等风险将更严峻，气候变化适应是京津冀城市群可持续发展面临的紧迫问题，适应策略等方面研究已取得了明显进展，但适用性和针对性还存在不足。本文提出了未来研究展望：深入研究城市化对气候变化的反馈，发展全球气候变化和城市化共同作用下的气候风险精细化预估技术，系统研究气候变化对城市的影响和不同行业的脆弱性，加强温室气体监测评估技术研究，加强适应气候变化的策略、路径和技术研究。

关键词: 气候变化, 影响, 适应, 京津冀

Abstract:

In this study, the research results on the climate change and its impact as well as adaptation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration since 2000 are systematically summarized. The results show that the annual average temperature and extreme high temperature of BTH urban agglomeration have obviously increased, and annual precipitation has weakened since 1960s. Meanwhile, the extreme precipitation index has decreased until the 2010s. The climate change in the BTH is jointly affected by global warming, and urbanization. Urbanization has accelerated the warming trend in the BTH, increased the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature and extreme heavy precipitation, and thus resulted in high climate risk. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, it is projected that the extreme high temperature index and the extreme heavy precipitation index will increase in the BTH in the middle and late 21st century. When the global temperature rises by 1.5℃ in the future, the risk of high-intensity extreme warm events will increase by nearly three times, and the risk of high-intensity extreme precipitation events will increase by nearly two times. In the future the coordinated development of BTH urban agglomeration will face more severe risks such as high temperature and heat wave, heavy precipitation, water shortage and sea level rise. Therefore, it is quite urgent for the BTH urban agglomeration to adapt to climate change, so as to maintain the sustainable development. At present, huge progress has been made in the adaptation strategies, but there are still some deficiencies in their applicability and pertinence. This study puts forward the prospects for future research. The feedback of urbanization on climate change should be deeply investigated. The refined projection technology of climate risk under the joint effect of global climate change and urbanization should be developed. The systematical impact studies of climate change on cities and the vulnerability of different industries need to be conducted. The greenhouse gas monitoring and evaluation technology should be strengthened. The strategies, paths and technologies to adapt to climate change should be further studied.

Key words: Climate change, Impacts, Adaptation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

王玉洁, 林欣. 京津冀城市群气候变化及影响适应研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 743-755.

WANG Yu-Jie, LIN Xin. A review of climate change and its impact and adaptation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 743-755.

图/表 1

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