气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 653-669.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.277
收稿日期:
2021-12-13
修回日期:
2022-01-27
出版日期:
2022-11-30
发布日期:
2022-07-13
通讯作者:
周星妍
作者简介:
梅梅,女,高级工程师,基金资助:
MEI Mei(), HOU Wei, ZHOU Xing-Yan()
Received:
2021-12-13
Revised:
2022-01-27
Online:
2022-11-30
Published:
2022-07-13
Contact:
ZHOU Xing-Yan
摘要:
利用1961—2020年中国区域2089个地面观测站资料,分析了1991—2020年和1981—2010年新、旧气候态下,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量等变量的空间变化特征,探讨对气候距平值、极端事件等评估结果的影响。结果表明:新气候态下,全国三类气温年和季节平均均一致升高,年降水增加,空间上气温偏高(低)、降水偏多(少)的特征将弱(强)化;华北东部、华东中部和北部以及青海西南部的年平均风速和日照时数距平增加;极端高温年减少,低温年增多,其中平均气温和最低气温受到的影响较最高气温更大;夏季南北方两条雨带极端强降水年的发生概率降低,冬季东北中部和南部、华北、华东北部、西北东部极端弱降水年概率显著增加;全国超过一半的站点极端日高温、低温和强降水事件的历史频次发生改变;新气候态还减弱了极端日高温事件的增速,加快了极端日低温事件的降速。
梅梅, 侯威, 周星妍. 新、旧气候态差异及对中国地区气候和极端事件评估业务的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 653-669.
MEI Mei, HOU Wei, ZHOU Xing-Yan. The difference between new and old climate states and its impact on the assessment of climate and extreme event in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 653-669.
图1 全国平均气温(a)、最高气温(b)和最低气温(c)新、旧气候态平均值的差值 注:打点区域代表新气候态减旧气候态的差值通过了95%信度水平的t检验,下同。
Fig. 1 The differences of the 30-year mean temperatures between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Mean temperature, (b) maximum temperature, (c) minimum temperature. (The dotted areas indicate that the differences between the two periods exceeded the 95% confidence level of t test)
图2 新、旧气候态下全国年降水量(a)、相对湿度(b)、平均风速(c)和日照时数(d)的差值分布
Fig. 2 The differences of the annual variables between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Precipitation, (b) relative humidity, (c) average wind speed, (d) sunshine hours
图3 全国季节平均气温、最高气温、最低气温新、旧气候态的差值
Fig. 3 The differences of the seasonal average temperatures (a-d), maximum temperatures (e-h), minimum temperatures (i-l) between the new and old climate states over China. (a, e, i) Spring, (b, f, j) summer, (c, g, k) autumn, (d, h, l) winter
图4 全国季节降水量新、旧气候态的相对变化率分布
Fig. 4 The relative changes of the seasonal precipitation between the old and new climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter
图5 全国季节平均相对湿度新、旧气候态的差值
Fig. 5 The differences of the seasonal relative humidity between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter
图6 全国季节平均风速新、旧气候态的差值
Fig. 6 The differences of the seasonal average wind speed between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter
图7 全国季节累计日照时数新、旧气候态的差值
Fig. 7 The differences of the seasonal sunshine hours between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter
图8 新、旧气候态下1961—2020年全国站点极端高(a,c,e)、低(b,d,f)温年发生概率的差值
Fig. 8 The differences in probabilities of extreme high (a, c, e) and low (b, d, f) temperatures years between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020. (a, b) Mean temperature, (c, d) maximum temperature, (e, f) minimum temperature
图9 新、旧气候态下1961—2020年全国站点夏季(a,b)、冬季(c,d)极端强(a,c)、弱(b,d)降水发生概率的差值 注:(a)图中两条黑色曲线将夏季极端强降水发生概率变化特征分为三条带状区域。
Fig. 9 The differences in probabilities of extreme more (a, c, e) and less (b, d, f) precipitation seasons between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020. (a, b) Summer, (c, d) winter
图10 新、旧气候态下全国站点极端日高温(a)、日低温(b)、日强降水(c)事件阈值之差及概率密度(d,e,f)分布 注:(d)、(e)、(f)图中最高黄柱代表阈值没有发生变化的站点占比。
Fig. 10 The differences of daily extreme high (a), low (b) temperatures and heavy precipitation (c) thresholds and their probability densities (d, e, f) between the new and old climate states at the meteorological observation stations over China
图11 新、旧气候态下1961—2020年全国极端事件发生站次变化
Fig. 11 The differences of daily extreme high (a), low (b) temperatures and heavy precipitation (c) frequency between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020
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