IPCC AR6报告解读：陆地和淡水生态系统及其服务变化

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.071

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 395-404.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.071

• IPCC第六次评估报告WGII专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

IPCC AR6报告解读：陆地和淡水生态系统及其服务变化

胡轶伦¹^,²^,³(), 冀国旭¹^,²^,³, 李积宏⁴, 干珠扎布¹^,²^,³, 胡国铮¹^,²^,³, 高清竹¹^,²^,³()

1 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京 100081
2 农业农村部农业环境重点实验室,北京 100081
3 中国农业科学院农业农村碳达峰碳中和研究中心,北京 100081
4 那曲市气象局,那曲 852000

收稿日期:2022-04-08 修回日期:2022-05-09 出版日期:2022-07-30 发布日期:2022-06-15
通讯作者: 高清竹
作者简介:胡轶伦,男,博士后, huyilun@caas.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(32171590)

Interpretation of IPCC AR6: terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services

HU Yi-Lun¹^,²^,³(), JI Guo-Xu¹^,²^,³, LI Ji-Hong⁴, HASBAGAN Ganjurjav¹^,²^,³, HU Guo-Zheng¹^,²^,³, GAO Qing-Zhu¹^,²^,³()

1 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2 Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China
3 Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Center for Carbon Neutrality in Agriculture and Rural Region, Beijing 100081, China
4 Naqu Meteorological Bureau, Nagqu 852000, China

Received:2022-04-08 Revised:2022-05-09 Online:2022-07-30 Published:2022-06-15
Contact: GAO Qing-Zhu

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告的第二章表明,气候变化对陆地和淡水生态系统影响的范围和程度较前期评估结果更为严峻。人为气候变化导致生态系统结构、功能和恢复力恶化,生物群落转移,疾病的传播范围和发病率增加,野火燃烧面积增加和持续时间延长,局部地区物种灭绝,极端天气的频率和强度增加。未来气温升高2~4℃情景下,陆地和淡水生态系统中高灭绝风险物种占比为10%~13%,野火燃烧面积增加35%~40%,森林地区50%以上树木面临死亡风险,15%~35%的生态系统结构发生转变,碳损失持续增加,气温的升高将进一步加剧这些风险造成的严重且不可逆的影响。通过生态系统保护和恢复等人为适应和减缓措施,可以在一定程度的气候变化范围内保护生态系统的生物多样性并增强生态系统服务在气候变化下的恢复力。加剧的气候变化将阻碍适应措施的制定和实施,为保证措施的有效性需要考虑气候变化的长期影响并加快适应措施的部署。

关键词: IPCC, 陆地生态系统, 淡水生态系统, 生态系统服务, 风险评估, 适应

Abstract:

Chapter 2 of Working Group II's IPCC Sixth Assessment Report suggests that prior reports underestimated impacts of climate change on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems due to complex biological responses to climate system. Anthropogenic climate change has led to deterioration of ecosystem structure, function and resilience, biome shifts and structural changes within ecosystem, increased wildlife diseases, increased area burned by wildfire, localized species extinctions and more extreme events. Under the scenario of temperature rise of 2-4℃ in the future, the percentage of species at high risk of extinction will be 10% to 13%, the wildfire burned area will increase by 35% to 40%, risks of tree mortality will exceed 50% in forest area, biome shifts on 15% to 35% and carbon loss continues to increase. The continuous increase of global temperature will aggravate the severe and irreversible impacts of these risks. The resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services to climate change can be increased by human adaptation actions and mitigation measures including ecosystem protection and restoration. Aggravated climate change hinders the development and implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation. The long-term impacts of climate change need to be considered and the deployment of adaptation should be accelerated to ensure their effectiveness.

Key words: IPCC, Terrestrial ecosystems, Freshwater ecosystems, Ecosystem services, Risk assessment, Adaptation

胡轶伦, 冀国旭, 李积宏, 干珠扎布, 胡国铮, 高清竹. IPCC AR6报告解读：陆地和淡水生态系统及其服务变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(4): 395-404.

HU Yi-Lun, JI Guo-Xu, LI Ji-Hong, HASBAGAN Ganjurjav, HU Guo-Zheng, GAO Qing-Zhu. Interpretation of IPCC AR6: terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(4): 395-404.

图/表 4

图1 1970—2010年全球湖泊(a)和1901—2010年河流(b)表层水温变化趋势及纬度梯度上的水温变化趋势注：因为研究时间尺度不一致,图中不同河流或湖泊的水温变化趋势不能直接比较。本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第二章图2.2。

Fig. 1 Observed global trends in lake (a, 1970-2010) and river (b, 1901-2010) surface water temperature and temperature trends along a latitudinal gradient

图2 由气候变化或土地利用与气候变化共同作用引起的植物功能类型分布变化注：植物功能类型的转变表明生物群落功能和结构的转变。本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第二章图框2.1.1。

Fig. 2 Observed changes in the distribution of plant functional types that are caused by climate change or combination of land use and climate change

图3 极端天气或气候事件的频率、持续时间和强度变化对物种灭绝风险的影响注：许多物种已经适应长期和短期的气候变化,但随着极端事件的强度和频率增加,加之长期的气温升高,达到物种生存极限的极端天气事件（黄色）和导致物种灭绝的极端天气事件（红色）更频繁地出现,引起物种的局部灭绝,且没有足够的时间恢复到原始水平,导致生态系统的组成、结构和功能发生长期且不可逆转的变化。当极端事件发生在物种分布的主要区域时,单一极端事件可能会导致物种的全球灭绝。本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第二章交叉章节图框EXTRMES.1。

Fig. 3 Impact of changes in the frequency, duration and magnitude of extreme weather or climate events on extinction risk

图4 气候变化下陆地和淡水生态系统面临的关键风险注：图中显示了与工业化前（1850—1900年）相比,全球地表平均气温升高的影响和风险,风险等级和转变的可能性评估未考虑人为适应措施的影响。气候变化与非气候因素的复合效应可能导致更高的风险,包括森林砍伐、农业扩张、城市化以及空气、水和土壤污染。本图引自IPCC AR6 WGII第二章图2.11。

Fig. 4 Key risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems from climate change

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IPCC AR6报告解读：陆地和淡水生态系统及其服务变化

Interpretation of IPCC AR6: terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services

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