气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 81-96.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.049
许鸿伟1,2,3,4, 汪鹏1,2,3(), 任松彦1,2,3, 林泽伟1,2,3, 赵黛青1,2,3
收稿日期:
2021-03-15
修回日期:
2021-04-27
出版日期:
2022-01-30
发布日期:
2021-12-27
通讯作者:
汪鹏
作者简介:
许鸿伟,男,硕士研究生
基金资助:
XU Hong-Wei1,2,3,4, WANG Peng1,2,3(), REN Song-Yan1,2,3, LIN Ze-Wei1,2,3, ZHAO Dai-Qing1,2,3
Received:
2021-03-15
Revised:
2021-04-27
Online:
2022-01-30
Published:
2021-12-27
Contact:
WANG Peng
摘要:
为探讨粤港澳大湾区实现碳中和及电力低碳转型过程的供应安全,构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,设计51种情景模拟各类型发电量的年均变化幅度,以全社会福利最大化为评价指标,研究煤电退役到保底容量、煤电完全退役和气电达峰容量的最优时间节点和发展速度。结果表明:2020年煤电发电量以年均降低66亿kW∙h幅度退役到2032年保底容量,再以年均降低40亿kW∙h幅度在2045年实现完全退役;气电发电量从2020年起以年均增长61亿kW∙h的幅度在2038年达到峰值,然后以年均51亿kW∙h幅度退役到2050年保底容量1323亿kW∙h;进一步依据2020—2050年本地总发电量增速不变得到非化石电力增长速度,此种煤电、气电和非化石电力发展速度组合的经济性最优。相比基准情景,优选出的电力转型组合情景可累积促进化石能源消费量降低1.1亿tce,碳排放降低2.8亿t CO2,电力部门增加值增长238亿元,其他部门增加值增长172亿元。
许鸿伟, 汪鹏, 任松彦, 林泽伟, 赵黛青. 基于CGE模型的电力低碳转型速度调控策略研究——以粤港澳大湾区为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(1): 81-96.
XU Hong-Wei, WANG Peng, REN Song-Yan, LIN Ze-Wei, ZHAO Dai-Qing. Research on the speed control strategy of low carbon power transition based on CGE model—take the GBA as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(1): 81-96.
图5 2017—2050年电力部门煤炭消耗量(a)、自身电力消耗量(b)以及增加值变化(c)
Fig. 5 Changes coal consumption (a), its own electricity consumption (b), and in added value (c) of the power sector in 2017-2050
图7 相比A6情景,其他10个情景电力部门(a)和其他部门(b)增加值总量变化
Fig. 7 Compared with scenario A6, the changes in total added value of the power sector (a) and other sectors (b) of the other 10 scenarios
图8 相比B11情景,其他10个情景的其他部门增加值总量(a)和GDP总量(b)变化
Fig. 8 Compared with scenario B11, changes in the total added value of other sectors (a) and total GDP (b) of the other 10 scenarios
表6 不同情景下2050年气电发电量占本地总发电量比例设定
Table 6 Setting of the proportion of gas-electricity generation in the local total power generation in 2050 under different scenarios %
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