浙江省1901—2017年降水序列构建及变化特征分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于通过均一性检验的历史观测资料和GPCC格点降水数据,采用逐步回归方法,构建了可以代表浙江省的1901—2017年年降水序列,并通过Morlet小波分析、MK检验、气候趋势等分析了浙江百年降水变化特征。结果表明：浙江68个台站1951—2017年月降水序列数据质量较好,均通过RHtest均一性检验。交叉检验表明,采用逐步回归方法区别台站资料长度建立的最优拟合方程组,能很好地反演浙江68个台站1901—2013年年降水情况。1901—2017年浙江省年降水量无明显线性变化趋势,但存在56 a和35 a两个变化主周期,在1960年前后全省降水由多雨期向少雨期突变。1901—2017年浙江降水气候倾向率呈东北高西南低的分布特征,各地数值分布在-15.6~19.1 mm/10a之间;平均相对变率呈北低南高的分布特征,各地数值分布在11.1%~20.2%之间。

关键词: 降水序列, 逐步回归, 变化特征, 突变, 浙江省

Abstract:

Based on homogeneous precipitation data and GPCC lattice data, the annual precipitation series from 1901 to 2017 that could represent the Zhejiang province was constructed by using the stepwise regression method, and characteristics of the precipitation series were analyzed through the Morlet wavelet analysis and MK method. Results showed that monthly precipitation series of 68 stations in Zhejiang from 1951 to 2017 were homogeneous by using RHtest method, and the fitting equations had nice fitting results for each stations. Combined with the fitted values, incomplete observation precipitation data were preprocessed by using interpolation and extension, annual precipitation series were constructed in Zhejiang province from 1901 to 2017. The characteristic analysis showed that there was no obvious long-term trend of precipitation in Zhejiang province from 1901 to 2017. Wavelet analysis showed that the significant oscillation period of precipitation cycle was about 56 a and 35 a for annual precipitation over Zhejiang from 1901 to 2017. A precipitation catastrophe appeared in 1960 for annual mean from a rainy period to a less rainy period. The climatic tendency of precipitation was distributed high in the northeast and low in the southwest, with a range of -15.6 to 19.1 mm/10a in Zhejiang province from 1901 to 2017. The average relative variation of precipitation was distributed low in the north and high in the south, with a range of 11.1% to 20.2%.

Key words: Precipitation series, Stepwise regression, Change characteristics, Catastrophe, Zhejiang province

肖晶晶, 李正泉, 郭芬芬, 姚益平, 马浩, 王阔, 温泉沛. 浙江省1901—2017年降水序列构建及变化特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 553-561.

Jing-Jing XIAO, Zheng-Quan LI, Fen-Fen GUO, Yi-Ping YAO, Hao MA, Kuo WANG, Quan-Pei WEN. Construction and analysis of annual precipitation series from 1901 to 2017 in Zhejiang province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 553-561.

图/表 10

Table 1 Lack of monthly precipitation observation data of Hangzhou, Longquan and Wenzhou station

Table 2 Homogeneity of monthly precipitation of stations in Zhejiang province

图1 1971—2013年浙江68个台站拟合方程的复相关系数(R2)

Fig. 1 Fitting equations’ correlation coefficient of 68 stations in Zhejiang province from 1971 to 2013

图2 1951—2013年浙江68个台站拟合方程的复相关系数(R2)

Fig. 2 Fitting equations’ correlation coefficient of 68 stations in Zhejiang province from 1951 to 2013

图3 1901—2013年杭州站(a)和温州站(b)降水观测和拟合值曲线

Fig. 3 The observation and fitting precipitation curve of Hangzhou station (a) and Wenzhou station (b) from 1901 to 2013

Table 3 The absolute value of fitting error and the percentage of fitting error in Hangzhou station and Wenzhou station from 1901 to 2013

图4 1971—2017年浙江不同个数台站降水观测值均值代表性(a),1901—2013年浙江不同个数台站降水观测均值与68站拟合值均值的比较(b)

Fig. 4 The mean value of observational precipitation of different stations from 1971 to 2017 (a) , the comparison of observational precipitation and fitting precipitation from 1901 to 2013 (b) of Zhejiang province

图5 1901—2017年浙江省降水序列

Fig. 5 The annual precipitation series in Zhejiang province from 1901 to 2017

图6 1901—2017年浙江降水序列小波系数实部图谱(a)及其MK突变检验(b)

Fig. 6 Wavelet analysis of annual precipitation (a) and MK test of annual precipitation (b) from 1901 to 2017 in Zhejiang province

图7 1901—2017年浙江68站降水气候倾向率(a)及平均相对变率(b)分布

Fig. 7 Climatic tendency (a) and average relative variability (b) of 68 station’s precipitation of Zhejiang province from 1901 to 2017

参考文献

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[2]	秦大河, 陈振林, 罗勇 , 等. 气候变化科学的最新认知[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007,3(2):63-73
[3]	杨溯, 徐文慧, 许艳 , 等. 全球地面降水月值历史数据集研制[J]. 气象学报, 2016,74(2):259-270
[4]	丁一汇, 任国玉, 赵宗慈 , 等. 中国气候变化的检测及预估[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2007,1(1):1-10
[5]	Tank A M G K, Wijngaard J B, K?nnen G P , et al. Daily surface air temperature and precipitation dataset 1901-1999 for European Climate Assessment (ECA)[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2002,22(12):1441-1453
[6]	李庆祥, 彭嘉栋, 沈艳 . 1900—2009年中国均一化逐月降水数据集研制[J]. 地理学报, 2012,67(3):301-311
[7]	秦大河, 丁一汇, 苏纪兰 , 等. 中国气候与环境演变(上卷): 气候与环境的演变[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2005: 83
[8]	屠其璞 . 近百年来我国降水量的变化[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 1987,10(2):177-187
[9]	李庆祥 . 气候资料均一性研究导论[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2011: 86-102
[10]	施能, 陈绿文, 封国林 , 等. 1920—2000年全球陆地降水气候特征与变化[J]. 高原气象, 2004,23(4):435-443
[11]	黄雪松, 况雪源, 覃峥嵘 , 等. 广西近百年气温和降水序列的多时间尺度分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007,3(6):362-367
[12]	顾骏强, 施能, 薛根元 . 近40年浙江省降水量、雨日的气候变化[J]. 应用气象学报, 2002,13(3):322-329
[13]	刘德地, 李梅, 楼章华 , 等. 近50年来浙江省降雨特性变化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009,24(11):1973-1983
[14]	吕俊梅, 琚建华, 江剑民 . 近一百年中国东部区域降水的年代际跃变[J]. 大气科学, 2009,33(3):524-536
[15]	王绍武, 龚道溢, 叶瑾林 , 等. 1880年以来中国东部四季降水量序列及其变率[J]. 地理学报, 2000,55(3):281-293
[16]	王守荣, 苗长明 . 浙江气候资源环境及其变化[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008: 46
[17]	姜贵祥, 孙旭光 . 格点降水资料在中国东部夏季降水变率研究中的适用性[J]. 气象科学, 2016,36(4):448-456
[18]	王芬, 曹杰, 李腹广 , 等. 多套格点降水资料在云南及周边地区的对比[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013,24(4):472-483
[19]	Groisman P Y, Koknaeva V V, Belokrylova T A , et al. Overcoming biases of precipitation measurement: a history of the USSR experience[J]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 1991,72(11):1725-1733
[20]	刘佳, 马振峰, 范广洲 , 等. 多种均一性检验方法比较研究[J]. 气象, 2012,38(9):1121-1128
[21]	曹丽娟, 严中伟 . 地面气候资料均一性研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2011,7(2):129-135
[22]	Wang X L . Penalized maximal F-test for detecting undocumented mean shifts without trend change[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2008,25(3):368-384
[23]	Wang X L, Wen Q H, Wu Y . Penalized maximal test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate date series[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2007,46(6):916-931
[24]	Wang X L, Chen H, Wu Y , et al. New techniques for detection and adjustment of shifts in daily precipitation data series[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2010,49(12):2416-2436
[25]	张高杰, 何金海, 周自江 , 等. RHtest方法对我国降水资料的均一性检验试验[J]. 气象科技, 2012,40(6):914-921
[26]	赵琳琳 . 基于PW-MK及小波分析的辽阳降水特征研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2017,36(9):97-101
[27]	魏凤英 . 现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 63-66
[28]	郭芬芬, 肖晶晶, 张蕾 , 等. 1961—2013年中国农业界限温度的时空变化特征[J]. 生态学杂志, 2016,35(2):489-498
[29]	丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉 , 等. 气候变化国家评估报告(I):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006,2(1):3-9
[30]	沈锦花, 胡波 . 浙江省近534年旱涝发生规律及突变分析[J]. 气象, 2005,31(10):76-78