基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.060

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (6): 569-577.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.060

基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析

许艳, 唐国利, 张强

中国气象局国家气象信息中心, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2017-03-28 修回日期:2017-06-09 出版日期:2017-11-30 发布日期:2017-11-30
作者简介:许艳,女,工程师,xuyan@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206013）；中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201702）；中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201701）

Analysis of the Variation of the Air Temperature over China During the Global Warming Hiatus Period

Xu Yan, Tang Guoli, Zhang Qiang

National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2017-03-28 Revised:2017-06-09 Online:2017-11-30 Published:2017-11-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961-2014年水平分辨率为0.5°×0.5°的均一化气温网格数据，分析全球变暖趋缓期（1998-2014年）中国气温的变化特征。结果显示：1998-2014年中国气温上升趋缓明显，与增暖期（1985-1997年）相比，年平均气温和年平均最高气温由升温趋势转为降温趋势，分别为-0.05℃/10a和-0.11℃/10a，而年平均最低气温仍保持弱的上升趋势（0.06℃/10a）。全球变暖趋缓期中国的增暖型发生了显著变化：北方地区由增温趋势转为降温趋势，青藏高原和西南地区则呈现出相对强的增温趋势；从季节来看，冬季降温最强、夏季增温较其他季节偏强，而冬季（强降温）正是中国增暖趋缓的主要贡献季节。增温最强的要素仍然是最低气温。

关键词: 变暖趋缓, 气温, 变化特征, 均一化, 格点资料

Abstract:

By using a new monthly temperature dataset from 1961 to 2014 over China by 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution, the variation of the air temperature during the global warming hiatus period (1998-2014) was analyzed. It is found that, during the global warming hiatus period, the increasing trend of the mean and maximum air temperature over China indeed shifted, however the increasing trend of minimum air temperature over China didn't ceased, but only slowed down. The decrease in heating rate was mainly caused by the cooling trend in winter. The analysis showed that the warming type of China changed:the temperature in northern China showed a decrease trend, the temperature showed a relatively strong increase trend in Tibetan Plateau and southwestern region. For the seasonal means, the warming trend was very notable in summer but relatively weak in winter. For the elements, the strongest increase trend of temperature was the minimum temperature.

Key words: global warming hiatus, air temperature, variation characteristics, homogenization, grid dataset

许艳, 唐国利, 张强. 基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(6): 569-577.

Xu Yan, Tang Guoli, Zhang Qiang. Analysis of the Variation of the Air Temperature over China During the Global Warming Hiatus Period[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017, 13(6): 569-577.

参考文献

[1] IPCC. Climate change 2013:the physical science basis summary for policymakers[R]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013
[2] Kosaka Y, Xie S P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013, 501:403-407
[3] Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B Y, et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015, 348(6242):1469-1472
[4] 王绍武, 罗勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 全球变暖的停滞还能持续多久?[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(6):465-468
[5] 唐国利, 罗勇, 黄建斌, 等. 气候变暖在继续[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(4):235-242
[6] Li Q, Yang S, Xu W, et al. China experiencing the recent warming hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 42(3):889-898. DOI:10.1002/2014GL062773
[7] Xie Y K, Huang J P, LiuY Z. From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 37(4):1758-1773
[8] Xu Y, Gao X J, Shen Y, et al. A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation[J]. Advances In Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 26(4):763-772
[9] 吴佳, 高学杰. 一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J]. 地球物理学报, 2013, 56(4):1102-1111
[10] Jones P D, Raper S C, Bradley R S, et al. Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1986, 25:161-179
[11] Jones P D, Briffa K R. Global surface air temperature variations during the twentieth century:part 1, spatial temporal and seasonal details[J]. Holocene, 1992, 2(2):165-179
[12] Jones P D, Hemispheric surface air temperature variations:a reanalysis and an update to 1993[J]. Journal of Climate, 1994, 7(11):1794-1802
[13] Jones P D, Lister D H, Osborn T J, et al. Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations:an extensive revision and an update to 2010[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012, 117(D5). DOI:10.1029/2011JD017139
[14] 李庆祥. 气候资料均一性研究导论[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2011, 21
[15] Cao L J, Zhu Y N, Tang G L, et al. Climatic warming in China according to a homogenized data set from 2419 stations[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 36(13):4384-4392
[16] Hutchinson M F. ANUSPLIN version 4.36 user guide[Z]. Canberra:The Australia National University, 2006
[17] 丁一汇, 任国玉, 赵宗慈, 等. 中国气候变化的检测及预估[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2007, 1(1):1-10
[18] Ding T, Qian W. Geographical patterns and temporal variations of regional dry and wet heatwave events in China during 1960-2008[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 28, 322-337
[19] Sun Y, Zhang X, Zwiers F W, et al. Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in eastern China[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(12):1082-1085
[20] 丁一汇, 柳艳菊, 梁苏洁, 等. 东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(5):835-852
[21] Qian C, Fu C, Wu Z. Changes in the amplitude of the temperature annual cycle in China and their implication for climate change research[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(20):5292-5302
[22] Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T, et al. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1(7):360-364.
[23] England M H, Mcgregor S, Spence P, et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(3):222-227
[24] Dai A, Fyfe J C, Xie S P, et al. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5:555-559

基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析

Analysis of the Variation of the Air Temperature over China During the Global Warming Hiatus Period

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	王珂,蒲焘,史晓宜,孔彦龙. 澜沧江源区气温与降水对径流变化的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(3): 306-315.
[2]	王岱,孙银川,游庆龙. 太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(1): 70-77.
[3]	廖要明,陈德亮,刘秋锋. 中国地气温差时空分布及变化趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 374-384.
[4]	王晴,黄富祥,夏学齐. 2008年以来青藏高原春季大气温度逆转趋势及其与臭氧总量变化之间的可能联系[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 385-394.
[5]	吴芳营,游庆龙,谢文欣,张玲. 全球变暖1.5℃和2℃阈值时青藏高原气温的变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(2): 130-139.
[6]	肖晶晶, 李正泉, 郭芬芬, 姚益平, 马浩, 王阔, 温泉沛. 浙江省1901—2017年降水序列构建及变化特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 553-561.
[7]	毛明策,王琦,田亮. 2022年北京冬季奥运会人工造雪气象条件初步研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 547-552.
[8]	韩振宇,童尧,高学杰,徐影. 分位数映射法在RegCM4中国气温模拟订正中的应用[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(4): 331-340.
[9]	香薇,程志刚,周波涛,宾昕,冯冬蕾. 1975—2016年秦巴山区极端气温事件的空间差异性分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(4): 362-370.
[10]	陈正洪,何飞,崔杨,张雪婷. 近20年来风电场（群）对气候的影响研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(4): 381-391.
[11]	江晓菲,李伟,游庆龙. 中国未来极端气温变化的概率预估及其不确定性[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(3): 228-236.
[12]	周建琴, 黄玮, 朱勇, 李蒙, 周波涛. 云南气候舒适度分布和变化特征及未来变化趋势预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(2): 144-154.
[13]	葛非凡, 毛克彪, 蒋跃林, 姜立鹏, 范玉芬, 王一舒, 谭雪兰, 李建军. 三峡大坝运行后长江中下游流域气温与植被变化特征及原因分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(6): 578-588.
[14]	金凯, 王飞, 苟娇娇. 城市化对长沙市两气象站气温记录的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(5): 456-464.
[15]	刘苏峡丁文浩莫兴国王盛刘昌明罗贤何大明 Sagar Ratna Bajracharya Arun Bhakta Shrestha Nand Kishor Agrawal. 澜沧江和怒江流域的气候变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(4): 356-365.