云南气候舒适度分布和变化特征及未来变化趋势预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.065

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文章使用云南1961—2015年观测气象资料和RegCM4区域气候模式模拟的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2016—2099年气候变化预估资料,计算了云南逐日气候舒适度指数,采用线性趋势和通径分析等方法分析了云南近55年气候舒适度的时空演变特征和变化成因,最后对未来变化趋势作了预估。结果显示：(1)云南观测资料多年平均值舒适日数最多,占全年的55%,南多北少,夏季最多;寒冷日数次多,占全年的23%,北多南少,冬季最多;冷日数比寒冷日数稍少,占全年的20%;热日数仅占全年的1%,闷热日数多年平均值为零。(2) 1961—2015年寒冷(舒适)日数年际和空间变化都呈明显的减少(增加)趋势,冷和热日数没有明显的变化趋势,闷热日数没有变化。(3)气温是云南气候舒适度各等级日数变化的主要因素,其次是风速,相对湿度只在温度高的情况下影响明显。(4) RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2016—2099年云南寒冷(舒适)日数年际和空间变化都是减少(增加)的趋势;冷日数年变化是减少的趋势,空间变化为西北部增加;热日数只在RCP8.5情景下增加明显,主要是南部地区增加。

关键词: 云南, 气候舒适度, 时空变化特征, 变化趋势预估

Abstract:

Based on climate observation (daily mean temperature data etc.) from 1961 to 2015 and regional climate model results from 2016 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate comfort index of Yunnan province was calculated, then the spatial and temporal evolution and influence factors were investigated by linear trend and path analysis, finally the projection for future trends was made. The results shows: (1) The number of comfort days for Yunnan regional average accounted for 55% of year-round total days, which presented a decrease trend in spatial distribution from south to north with the biggest number of days in summer. The number of chill days came second, accounted for 23% of annual total days, and showed an increase trend from south to north with the biggest number of days in winter. The number of cold days held the proportion of annual days with 20% (being slightly less than that of chill days), while the number of hot days only accounted for 1%. (2) The number of chill/comfort days in Yunnan showed an obvious decreasing/increasing trend during 1961-2015, and the cold and hot days both showed no significant trend. (3) The temperature was the main factors of change of Yunnan climate comfort days, then was the wind speed, the relative humidity will influence the change of comfort days just in the case of high temperature. (4) Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, during 2016-2099, the spatial and temporal evolution of chill/comfort days in Yunnan showed a/an decreasing/increasing trend, the spatial of cold days showed a decreasing trend, the temporal evolution of cold days showed an increasing trend in northwest of Yunnan but a decreasing trend in other areas, the hot days showed an increasing trend in the south of Yunnan.

Key words: Yunnan province, Climate comfort days, Spatial and temporal change, Projection for future trends

周建琴, 黄玮, 朱勇, 李蒙, 周波涛. 云南气候舒适度分布和变化特征及未来变化趋势预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(2): 144-154.

Jian-Qin ZHOU, Wei HUANG, Yong ZHU, Meng LI, Bo-Tao ZHOU. Climate comfort distribution, change and projection in Yunnan province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(2): 144-154.

图/表 10

表1 人居环境舒适度等级划分表[1]

Table 1 Level partition of living environment comfortable[1]

图1 云南寒冷(a)、冷(b)、舒适(c)和热日数(d)多年平均值空间分布

Fig. 1 The spatial distributions of the climate average chill (a), cold (b), comfort (c) and hot days (d) in Yunnan province

图2 云南区域平均气候舒适度等级各月多年平均值的分布

Fig. 2 Regional average climate comfort days of every month in Yunnan province

图3 云南气候舒适度各等级日数距平值年际(a)和年代际(b)变化注：1960S指1961—1970年,依此类推,但2010S为2011—2015年。

Fig. 3 Change of year (a) and decade (b) of climate comfort days in Yunnan province

图4 云南1961—2015年寒冷(a)、冷(b)、舒适(c)、热日数(d)的线性趋势（单位：d/10a;阴影区通过了95%的信度检验）

Fig. 4 The linear trend of chill (a), cold (b), comfort (c), hot (d) days of Yunnan province during 1961-2015 (unit: d/10a; Shadings indicate above the 95% confidence level)

表2 云南1961—2015年寒冷(舒适)日数与各影响因子的相关和通径系数(通过年平均距平值计算）

Table 2 Direct path coefficients of chill and comfort days index and each influence factor in Yunnan province during 1961-2015

图5 RCP4.5（实线）和RCP8.5（虚线）两种情景下2016—2099年云南气候舒适度各等级日数距平变化

Fig. 5 Projection for future change of climate comfort days in Yunnan province during 2016-2099

表3 RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)情景下2016—2099年云南年和季节舒适度各等级日数气候线性趋势

Table 3 Linear trend of annual and seasonal climate comfort days in Yunnan province during 2016-2099 under RCP4.5/RCP8.5 scenarios

图6 RCP4.5情景下云南2016—2099年寒冷(a)、冷(b)、舒适(c)、热日数(d)的线性趋势（单位：d/10a;阴影区通过了95%的信度检验）

Fig. 6 The linear trend of chill (a), cold (b), comfort (c), hot (d) days of Yunnan province during 2016-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario(unit: d/10a; Shadings indicate above the 95% confidence level)

图7 同图6,但为RCP8.5情景下2016—2099年变化趋势

Fig. 7 The same as Fig. 6, but for RCP8.5 scenario

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