气候变化研究进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 03 ›› Issue (03): 154-157.

• 极端事件专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

北半球温带气旋的变化

王新敏 邹旭恺 翟盘茂   

  1. 南京信息工程大学 国家气候中心 中国气象局 预测减灾司
  • 收稿日期:2006-12-31 修回日期:2007-01-09 出版日期:2007-05-30 发布日期:2007-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 王新敏

Researches on Extratropical Cyclone Variability in the Northern Hemisphere

  

  • Received:2006-12-31 Revised:2007-01-09 Online:2007-05-30 Published:2007-05-30

摘要: 许多学者对近半个世纪以来温带气旋的频数、强度和路径的年际、年代际变化等特征进行了研究,并探讨了温带气旋变化与大气环流的关系,试图揭示气候变暖背景下温带气旋变化的可能原因。较为一致的研究结论是:在全球变暖背景下,北半球气旋活动的变化显示出在中纬度明显减少,而在高纬度增加的趋势,意味着气旋的路径已经明显地北移。研究还表明,气旋活动的变化与对流层斜压性、急流以及北大西洋涛动、海温梯度等因素有关。

关键词: 温带气旋, 气候变暖, 斜压不稳定, NCEP/NCAR再分析资料

Abstract: Studies on extratropical cyclones under the climate warming background have attracted particular concern in recent years. Most of these researches focused on the characteristics of interannual or interdecadal variations of cyclone frequency, intensity and storm tracks. The consensus indicated that cyclone frequency by statistics has significantly decreased in mid-latitudes, but increased in high-latitudes. Storm intensity has increased in both high- and mid-latitudes during the past 50 years. The global warming might have resulted in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, cyclone activities have good relations with tropospheric baroclinity, westerly jet, and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient.

Key words: extratropical cyclone, climate warming, baroclinic instability, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, sea-level pressure

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