1992—2012年东北水稻生育期变化分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.221

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生产实践中水稻生育期变化是气候条件和品种更新等因素共同作用的结果。利用东北地区13个农业气象站点1992—2012年水稻试验观测资料,分析水稻生育期的变化及其与东北变暖趋势、水稻品种调整的关系。结果表明：水稻生长季平均气温和≥10℃积温在1992—2001年呈显著增加趋势,水稻生长季积温的差别最大可达500℃?d,从2002年开始升温趋势减缓,并略有下降。相应地,2002—2012年与1992—2001年的物候期基本上呈现相反的变化特征,其中抽穗期、乳熟期、成熟期在1992—2001年明显提前,分别提前了3.1、2.9、4.5 d/10a,移栽期、分蘖期、成熟期则在2002—2012年呈现出明显的推迟趋势,分别推迟了4.6、4.7、2.0 d/10a;生育期的变化受多种因素影响,但播种-移栽期、乳熟-成熟期在1992—2001年分别缩短了0.7、1.6 d/10a,而在2002—2012年则分别延长了2.9、2.8 d/10a;总的来说,1992—2012年水稻全生育期整体延长了3.7 d/10a,其主要归因于营养生长期的延长。在试验资料比较完整的12个站点所做的分析表明,在东北水稻种植的生产实践中,不断地通过品种调整适应气候条件的改变,多数站点水稻实际生育期与品种审定生育日数差别较小,说明其品种的选择能够与当年的气候条件较好地匹配,充分利用了当地的气候资源。延吉站、梅河口站、通化站随着气候的持续波动又显示出水稻实际生育期与品种审定生育日数偏差增大的趋势,宁安站和前郭尔罗斯站的水稻种植品种的审定生育日数几乎没有改变。因此,迫切需要对东北气候变化的科学事实和水稻种植适应气候变化的生产实践进行系统的总结,为东北水稻生产适应气候变化提供科学支撑。

关键词: 气候变暖, 东北地区, 水稻品种, 物候期, 生育期

Abstract:

The change of rice growth period is dominated by the climatic conditions and variety renewal as well as the corresponding field managements. Thirteen agro-meteorological stations data in Northeast China from 1992 to 2012 were used to analyze the changes of rice growth period and its relationship with the warming trend and the adjustment of rice varieties. The results show that the mean temperature and more than 10℃ cumulative temperature of rice growing season increased significantly from 1992 to 2001, the maximum value of the difference in ≥10℃cumulative temperature could reach as high as 500℃?d, then the warming trend slowed down and slightly declined from 2002. Corresponding to the warming trend, it shows an overall opposite feature of the changes of rice phenology in 2002-2012 vs. 1992-2001, the heading stage, milky maturing stage and maturing stage were obviously advanced from 1992 to 2001 by 3.1, 2.9, 4.5 d/10a, respectively, while the transplanting, tillering and maturing stages delayed by 4.6, 4.7, 2.0 d/10a, respectively, in 2002-2012. Though the changes of growth period were affected by many factors, but the sowing to transplanting period and milky maturity to maturing period were shortened by 0.7, 1.6 d/10a in 1992-2001, respectively, and were prolonged by 2.9, 2.8 d/10a, respectively, in 2002-2012. In general, the whole rice growth period was prolonged by 3.7 d/10a in 1992-2012, which was mainly attributed to the extension of vegetative growth periods. The analysis of 12 stations with complete experimental data shows that the rice variety adjustment is constantly implemented in Northeast China to adapt to the changes of climatic conditions, it is shown that over most of the selected stations there was a small deviation between the observed rice growth period and the certificated growth days of variety registration, which means that the selected rice variety could match the in situ climatic conditions for the effective utilization of the local climatic resources, however, there are still some stations (such as Yanji, Meihekou, and Tonghua) in which the deviation between the observed rice growth period and the certificated growth days of variety registration was getting larger due to the enhanced climatic variation, besides, in some stations (such as in Ning’an and Qian Gorlos) there were almost no changes for the certificated growth days of variety registration. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a systematic summary of the climate sciences and the lessons how to adapt the rice production to climate change in Northeast China, and then providing solid scientific support to climate change adaptation for rice production in Northeast China.

Key words: Climate warming, Northeast China, Rice varieties, Phenology, Growth period

高孟霜,许吟隆,殷红,李阔,李新华. 1992—2012年东北水稻生育期变化分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5): 495-504.

Meng-Shuang GAO,Yin-Long XU,Hong YIN,Kuo LI,Xin-Hua LI. Analysis on the changes of rice growth period over Northeast China in 1992-2012[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(5): 495-504.

图/表 8

图1 选取的东北地区13个农业气象观测站(a) 和13个气象站的空间分布(b)

Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of 13 stations for agro-meteorological observations (a) and 13 meteorological stations (b) in Northeast China

图2 东北地区13个气象站点1992—2012年水稻生长季（4—9月）平均气温(a)和≥10℃积温(b)的变化

Fig. 2 Changes of the average temperature (a) and more than 10℃ cumulative temperature (b) during the rice growing season (April-September) over Northeast China in 1992-2012

图3 东北地区13个站1992—2001年水稻物候期的变化

Fig. 3 The changes of rice phenology from 1992 to 2001 over the 13 selected stations in Northeast China

图4 东北地区13个站2002—2012年水稻物候期的变化

Fig. 4 The changes of rice phenology from 2002 to 2012 over the 13 selected stations in Northeast China

图5 东北地区13个站1992—2001年水稻生育期的变化

Fig. 5 The changes of rice growth period from 1992 to 2001 over the 13 selected stations in Northeast China

图6 东北地区13个站2002—2012年水稻生育期的变化特征

Fig. 6 The changes of rice growth period from 2002 to 2012 over the 13 selected stations in Northeast China

图7 东北地区13个站1992—2012年水稻生育期的变化

Fig. 7 The changes of the rice growth period in 1992-2012 over the 13 selected stations in Northeast China

Table 1 Statistical analysis of rice variety growth period at selected sites in Northeast China

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