关键词: 西北太平洋, 台风变化, 预估, 21世纪

Abstract: It is summarized the projections of typhoon changes over the western North Pacific Ocean for the 21st century in the recent years. Multi-model ensembles with the various human emission scenarios indicate that the total numbers of the annual typhoons simulated over the western North Pacific Ocean might decrease by the end of the 21st century. But the numbers of the strong typhoons simulated and the intensities of their wind speed and precipitation might increase at the same time. It must be emphasized that the long-term projection of the typhoons is a very difficult issue, the further studies will be conducted in future to narrow the gaps and uncertainties. The mechanisms and feedbacks between the human activities and typhoon changes should be investigated in detail.

Key words: western North Pacific Ocean, typhoon changes, projections, 21st century