第四次国际古气候模拟比较计划（PMIP4）概况与评述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.085

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

古气候模拟比较计划（PMIP）是古气候数值模拟领域一项重大的国际合作研究计划,其主旨是为古气候模拟和模拟结果评估提供一个协调机制,理解过去气候变化的物理机制和气候反馈的重要作用,为未来气候预估提供科学依据。同时,通过对比分析验证模式的模拟性能,探索其不确定性,促进耦合气候系统模式的发展。PMIP目前进行到第四阶段（PMIP4)。PMIP4进一步加强了与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的协作,选取了5组共同关注的PMIP4-CMIP6古气候模拟试验（中全新世、末次盛冰期、过去千年、末次间冰期和上新世暖期),考察气候系统对不同气候背景的综合响应。除此以外,PMIP4还设计了众多敏感性试验研究不同外强迫因子的影响。PMIP4模拟试验不仅为古气候研究提供大量的模拟数据,还将服务于CMIP6及其他众多模式比较计划。

关键词: 古气候, 数值模拟, 外强迫, 中全新世, 末次盛冰期

Abstract:

The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to provide a coordinated framework for the paleoclimate modelling and evaluation, to understand the response of climate system to different climate forcings in the past, and to constrain the projection of future climate. PMIP also contributes the improvement of climate models by comparing simulations and understanding the model uncertainties. PMIP is now proceeding to the fourth phase (PMIP4) and further enhances the collaboration with CMIP6. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of CMIP6: the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (past1000); the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum; the Last Interglacial; and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. Besides, sensitivity experiments are designed to access the role of different forcing factors. PMIP4 not only provides a large number of simulations for paleoclimate research, but also collaborates with other CMIP6 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) by providing necessary variables.

Key words: Paleoclimate, Modelling, External forcing, MidHolocene, The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)

郑伟鹏,满文敏,孙咏,栾贻花. 第四次国际古气候模拟比较计划（PMIP4）概况与评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(5): 510-518.

Wei-Peng ZHENG,Wen-Min MAN,Yong SUN,Yi-Hua LUAN. Short commentary on CMIP6 Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(5): 510-518.

图/表 3

图1 PMIP4-CMIP6试验与CMIP6其他MIPs以及PMIP4其他工作组之间的关系注：图中 *号表示CMIP6第1优先级试验,#号代表PMIP4-CMIP6入门试验。本图基于文献[28]修改。

Fig. 1 The PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments in the framework of CMIP6 with associated MIPs; and in the framework of PMIP4, with its working groups (The symbols of * and # denote the CMIP6 Tier-1 experiments and the PMIP4-CMIP6 entry experiments, respectively. The figure is modified on the basis of Figure 4 in Kageyama et al[28])

表1 PMIP4-CMIP6古气候模拟试验方案

Table 1 The experiment protocols for each PMIP4-CMIP6 paleoclimate experiment

表2 参加 PMIP4的模式基本信息表

Table 2 Basic information of PMIP4 models

参考文献

[1]	COHMAP Members . Climatic changes of the last 18,000 years: observations and model simulations[J]. Science, 1988,241:1043-1052
[2]	Joussaume S, Taylor K E . Status of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) [R]. World Meteorological Organization-Publications-WMO TD, 1995: 425-430
[3]	Braconnot P, Otto-Bliesner B, Harrison S , et al. Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum. Part 1: experiments and large-scale features[J]. Climate of the Past, 2007,3(2):261-277
[4]	Braconnot P, Harrison S P, Otto-Bliesner B , et al. The Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project contribution to CMIP5 [R]. CLIVAR Exchanges, 2011,16(56):15-19
[5]	Liang X Z . Description of a nine-level grid point atmospheric general circulation model[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 1996,13(3):269-298
[6]	Yu Y Q, Zheng W P, Wang B , et al. Versions g1.0 and g1.1 of the LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2010,28(1):99-117
[7]	Li L J, Lin P F, Yu Y Q , et al. The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2: FGOALS-g2[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2013,30(3):543-560
[8]	Bao Q, Lin P F, Zhou T J , et al. The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2013,30(3):561-576
[9]	Zhou T J, Wu B, Wen X Y , et al. A fast version of LASG/IAP climate system model and its 1000-year control integration[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2008,25(4):655-672
[10]	Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P , et al. An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2014,28(1):34-56
[11]	靳立亚, OttoBliesner B L . 近10年来“国际古气候模拟比较计划(PMIP)”回顾和未来古气候模拟研究热点[J]. 第四纪研究, 2009,29(6):1015-1024.
[11]	Jin L Y, Otto-Bliesner B L . Advances of PMIP in the last 10 years and its key themes of future research plan[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2009,29(6):1015-1024 (in Chinese)
[12]	王会军, 曾庆存 . 冰期气候的数值模拟[J]. 气象学报, 1992,50(3):279-289.
[12]	Wang H J, Zeng Q C . The numerical simulation of the ice age climate[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1992,50(3):279-289 (in Chinese)
[13]	钱云, 钱永甫, 张耀存 . 末次冰期东亚区域气候变化的情景和机制研究[J]. 大气科学, 1998,22(3):283-293.
[13]	Qian Y, Qian Y F, Zhang Y C . Study on scenarios and mechanism of the regional climate change of East Asia in the Last Ice-Age[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1998,22(3):283-293 (in Chinese)
[14]	刘健, 于革, 陈星 , 等. 中全新世和末次盛冰期东亚古气候的模拟[J]. 自然科学进展, 2002,12(7):713-720.
[14]	Liu J, Yu G, Chen X , et al. Simulation of East Asian paleoclimate in the Middle Holocene and the Last Glacial[J]. Progress in Natural Science, 2002,12(7):713-720 (in Chinese)
[15]	陈星, 于革, 刘健 . 东亚中全新世的气候模拟及其温度变化机制探讨[J]. 中国科学: D 辑, 2002,32(4):335-345.
[15]	Chen X, Yu G, Liu J . Simulation of climate in East Asia in MidHolocene and the mechanisms in the changes of temperature[J]. Science in China Series: D-Earth Sciences, 2002,32(4):335-345 (in Chinese)
[16]	Jiang D B, Wang H J, Drange H , et al. Last Glacial Maximum over China: sensitivities of climate to paleovegetation and Tibetan ice sheet[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2003,108(D3)
[17]	郑益群, 于革, 陈星 , 等. 6 kaB.P.东亚区域气候模拟及其变化机制探讨[J]. 第四纪研究, 2004,24(1):28-38.
[17]	Zheng Y Q, Yu G, Chen X , et al. Simulations of East Asian climate at 6 kaB.P.[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2004,24(1):28-38 (in Chinese)
[18]	Zheng W P, Braconnot P, Guilyardi E , et al. ENSO at 6 ka and 21 ka from ocean-atmosphere coupled model simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2008,30(7-8):745-762
[19]	Jin L Y, Peng Y B, Chen F H , et al. Modeling sensitivity study of the possible impact of snow and glaciers developing over Tibetan Plateau on Holocene African-Asian summer monsoon climate[J]. Climate of the Past, 2009,5(3):457-469
[20]	Man W M, Zhou T J . Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2011,56(28):3042
[21]	Sun Y, Ramstein G, Contoux C , et al. A comparative study of large-scale atmospheric Circulation in the context of a future scenario (RCP4.5) and past warmth (Mid-Pliocene)[J]. Climate of the Past, 2013,9(4):1613-1627
[22]	Zheng W P, Yu Y Q . Paleoclimate simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum by FGOALS[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2013,30(3):684-698
[23]	Zheng W P, Zhang Z S, Chen L , et al. The Mid-Pliocene climate simulated by FGOALS-g2[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2013,6(4):1127-1135
[24]	Man W M, Zhou T J . Regional-scale surface air temperature and East Asian summer monsoon changes during the last millennium simulated by the FGOALS-gl climate system model[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2014,31(4):765-778
[25]	Man W M, Zhou T J . Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2014,59(31):4123-4129
[26]	Sun Y, Zhou T J, Ramstein G , et al. Drivers and mechanisms for enhanced summer monsoon precipitation over East Asia during the Mid-Pliocene in the IPSL-CM5A[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2016,46(5):1437-1457
[27]	Sun Y, Ramstein G, Li Z X , et al. Quantifying East Asian summer monsoon dynamics in the RCP4.5 scenario with reference to the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2018,45(22):12523-12533
[28]	Kageyama M, Braconnot P, Harrison S P , et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6. Part 1: overview and over-arching analysis plan[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2018,11(3):1033-1057
[29]	Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl G A , et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2016,9(5):1937-1958
[30]	Otto-Bliesner B L, Braconnot P, Harrison S P , et al . The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6. Part 2: two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017,10(11):3979-4003
[31]	Kageyama M, Albani S, Braconnot P , et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6. Part 4: scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017,10(11):4035-4055
[32]	Jungclaus J H, Bard E, Baroni M , et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6. Part 3: the last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017,10(11):4005-4033
[33]	Meinshausen M, Vogel E, Nauels A , et al. Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017,10(5):2057-2116
[34]	Schmidt G A, Jungclaus J H, Ammann C M , et al. Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2011,4(1):33-45
[35]	Berger A . Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1978,35(12):2362-2367
[36]	Lawrence D M, Hurtt G C, Ameth A , et al. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2016,9(9):2973-2998
[37]	Sigl M, Winstrup M, McConnell J R , et al. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years[J]. Nature, 2015,523:543
[38]	Toohey M, Sigl M . Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2017,9(2):809-831
[39]	Matthes K, Funke B, Anderson M , et al. Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017,10(6):2247-2302
[40]	Haywood A M, Dowsett H J, Dolan A M , et al. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design[J]. Climate of the Past, 2016,12(3):663-675
[41]	Haywood A M, Hill D, Dolan A M , et al. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project[J]. Climate of the Past, 2013,9(1):191-209
[42]	Hollis C J, Dunkley J T, Anagnostou E , et al. The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2019: 1-98