CMIP6情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP）概况与评述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.082

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (5): 519-525.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.082

• 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）评述及中国贡献专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

CMIP6情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP）概况与评述

张丽霞^1,²,陈晓龙¹,辛晓歌³

1 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG,北京 100029
2 中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京 100101
3 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081

收稿日期:2019-04-16 修回日期:2019-06-17 出版日期:2019-09-30 发布日期:2019-09-30
作者简介:张丽霞,女,副研究员,lixiazhang@mail.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA06065001);国家自然科学基金项目(41675076);国家自然科学基金项目(41605057)

Short commentary on CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP)

Li-Xia ZHANG^1,²,Xiao-Long CHEN¹,Xiao-Ge XIN³

1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China
3 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;

Received:2019-04-16 Revised:2019-06-17 Online:2019-09-30 Published:2019-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）最重要的子计划之一。该子计划基于不同共享社会经济路径可能发生的能源结构所产生的人为排放及土地利用变化,设计了一系列新的情景预估试验,为未来气候变化机理研究以及气候变化减缓和适应研究提供关键的数据支持。文中将重点介绍ScenarioMIP的试验设计及模式参与情况,并对其应用前景加以讨论和展望。

关键词: 情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP), CMIP6, 情景, 预估

Abstract:

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It will provide a new set of emissions and land use scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). ScenarioMIP aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities. This paper will briefly describe ScenarioMIP’s objectives, experimental design and the models participated in. A comment and future outlook will also be given in the end of this paper.

Key words: Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), CMIP6, Scenario, Projection

张丽霞,陈晓龙,辛晓歌. CMIP6情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP）概况与评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(5): 519-525.

Li-Xia ZHANG,Xiao-Long CHEN,Xiao-Ge XIN. Short commentary on CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(5): 519-525.

图/表 3

表1 ScenarioMIP试验设计

Table 1 ScenarioMIP experiments design

表2 ScenarioMIP试验人为强迫输入场[5]

Table 2 Anthropogenic forcing in ScenarioMIP experiments [5]

图1 ScenarioMIP试验21世纪全球平均的CO2排放,CO2浓度,人为辐射强迫和地表温度[5] 注：浓度、强迫和温度均基于简易气候模型MAGICC得到。温度变化包含了历史时期的自然强迫,未来预估假设没有火山强迫并且保持11 a太阳活动周期,与CMIP5方法一致。灰色阴影代表IPCC AR5情景数据集中所有情景的变化范围。注：浓度、强迫和温度均基于简易气候模型MAGICC得到。温度变化包含了历史时期的自然强迫,未来预估假设没有火山强迫并且保持11 a太阳活动周期,与CMIP5方法一致。灰色阴影代表IPCC AR5情景数据集中所有情景的变化范围。

Fig. 1 CO2 emissions, concentrations, anthropogenic radiative forcing, and global mean temperature for the 21st century in the ScenarioMIP design[5] (Concentration, forcing, and temperature outcomes are calculated with a simple climate model MAGICC. Temperature outcomes include natural forcing in the historical period; projections assume zero volcanic forcing and maintain 11 years solar forcing cycles, consistent with the CMIP5 approach. Gray areas represent the range of scenarios in the scenarios database for the IPCC AR5)

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