1961—2016年我国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及其气候特征

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.172

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用全国2287个气象观测站1961—2016年逐日降水资料,基于对暴雨区进行连续追踪的思路,采用暴雨相邻站点数和暴雨区中心距离确定了中国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别方法;根据区域性暴雨过程的平均强度、持续时间和平均范围构建了区域性暴雨过程的综合强度评估模型。利用该客观方法对1961—2016年中国的区域性暴雨过程进行识别,并分析其气候和气候变化特征。结果显示：我国区域性暴雨过程年均38.5次;区域性暴雨过程一年各月均可出现,但主要出现在4—9月,其中7、8月发生最为频繁,6月区域性暴雨过程持续时间长、范围广、综合强度强,这与长江中下游地区梅雨现象有关。一年中,区域性暴雨过程首次出现日期平均为3月6日,末次出现日期平均为11月14日;1961—2016年,我国年区域性暴雨过程首次出现日期呈明显提前、末次日期呈显著推后、暴雨期呈显著延长的变化趋势;年发生总频次呈微弱增多,较强区域性暴雨过程次数呈明显增加趋势;区域性暴雨过程的覆盖范围和综合强度均呈显著增大趋势。南方型区域暴雨过程变化趋势与全国的基本一致;北方型首次日期呈提前、末次日期呈推后趋势,发生频次有微弱减少趋势,覆盖范围、持续时间、综合强度均无明显变化趋势。

关键词: 区域性暴雨过程, 客观识别, 气候特征, 变化趋势

Abstract:

An objective method is proposed to identify the regional rainstorm event by tracing contineously the rainstorm area, according to the extent of rainstorm area and the distance between the rainstorm areas on two consecutive days. Moreover, the comprehensive intensity assessing method is developed basing on the intensity, persistency and extent of the regional rainstorm event. Using the daily precipitation data from 2287 stations in China during 1961-2016, the historical regional rainstorm events are identified and the climatology and changing trends of the events are revealed. It is found that, China’s regional rainstorm process averages 38.5 times per year. The regional rainstorm event occurs in every month of the year but mainly from April to September. The frequency of the event is the most in July and August, while the duration is longer, the range is wider and the comprehensive intensity is stronger in June, which is related to the Meiyu phenomenon in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Climatically, the average time of the first occurrence of regional rainstorm is March 6, and the average time of the last occurrence is November 14 in a year. From 1961 to 2016, the first occurrence date of regional rainstorm in China is obviously advanced, the last occurrence date is obviously backward, and the rainstorm period is obviously increased. The annual occurrence frequency increased slightly, but the frequency of strong regional rainstorm increased obviously. The coverage area and comprehensive intensity of the regional rainstorm show a significant increase. The variation trend of regional rainstorm of southern type is basically consistent with that of the whole country. The first occurrence date of the regional rainstorm of northern type is advanced, the last occurrence date is pushed back, the occurrence frequency is slightly decreased, and there is no significant change in coverage, duration and comprehensive strength.

Key words: Regional rainstorm event, Objective identification, Climatic characteristics, Changing trend

叶殿秀,王遵娅,高荣,王荣,肖潺. 1961—2016年我国区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及其气候特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 575-583.

Dian-Xiu YE,Zun-Ya WANG,Rong GAO,Rong WANG,Chan XIAO. Objective identification and climatic characters of the regional rainstorm event in China from 1961 to 2016[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 575-583.

图/表 9

图1 1961—2016年平均各月我国区域性暴雨过程发生频次

Fig. 1 The average frequency of the regional rainstorm event in each month in China during 1961-2016

图2 1961—2016年各月我国区域性暴雨过程平均持续日数

Fig. 2 The average duration of the regional rainstorm event in each month in China during 1961-2016

图3 1961—2016年各月我国区域性暴雨过程平均覆盖范围

Fig. 3 The average extent of the regional rainstorm event in each month in China during 1961-2016

图4 1961—2016年各月我国区域性暴雨过程平均综合强度

Fig. 4 The average comprehensive intensity of the regional rainstorm event in each month in China during 1961-2016

图5 1961—2016年我国历年首次和末次区域性暴雨过程出现日期变化

Fig. 5 Time series of the date of the first and last regional rainstorm event in China from 1961 to 2016

图6 1961—2016年我国区域性暴雨过程次数变化

Fig. 6 Time series of the annual frequency of the regional rainstorm event in China from 1961 to 2016

图7 1961—2016年中国年均单次区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围变化

Fig. 7 Time series of the annual mean extent of the regional rainstorm event of China from 1961 to 2016

图8 1961—2016年中国年均单次区域性暴雨过程持续日数变化

Fig. 8 Time series of the annual mean duration of the regional rainstorm event of China from 1961 to 2016

图9 1961—2016年中国年均单次区域性暴雨过程综合强度指数变化

Fig. 9 Time series of the annual mean comprehensive intensity index of the regional rainstorm event of China from 1961 to 2016

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