1.5℃增暖对全球和区域影响的研究进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.159

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

《巴黎协定》明确提出将全球平均升温控制在相对于工业化前水平2℃以内，并努力将其控制在1.5℃以内，以降低气候变化的风险与影响。随后，《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）邀请IPCC筹备关于1.5℃增暖影响及温室气体排放途径的特别报告，为UNFCCC谈判提供科学依据。通过回顾近期发表的一些成果发现，在1.5℃到2℃的不同升温条件下，很多极端天气事件发生的概率将增加。2℃条件下一些易受威胁的系统，如生态系统和农业系统，将承受全球变暖带来的严重后果；海平面明显上升，珊瑚礁锐减，季风降水减弱等影响将进一步加强。同时，不同地区对全球不同程度增暖的响应也存在很大差异。总的说来，相较于2℃增暖而言，将增暖控制在1.5℃以内能进一步减小气候变化影响的风险。然而，要把全球增暖控制在1.5℃内具有极大的挑战性，并且目前对1.5℃增暖的影响认识仍然十分不足。定量分析2℃和1.5℃增暖对不同区域自然和人类系统造成的影响差异，需要更高分辨率的模式以及更多针对2℃和1.5℃增暖影响而设计的专门试验支持。

关键词: 1.5℃增暖, 全球气候变化, 区域气候变化, 影响, 风险

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement indicates "to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels to reduce the risk and impact of climate change". Then, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invite IPCC to provide a special report on impact and related pathways of greenhouse gases emissions for 1.5℃ global warming. Under 2℃ global warming, the risk of some types of extreme events will further increase; Some vulnerable systems, such as ecosystems and agricultural systems, will suffer more serious consequences. At the same time, the world will face more server consequences of sea surface level rise, coral reefs degradation and monsoon precipitation decrease. Regional responses to global warming with various magnitudes also show great differences. In general, limit temperature increase to 1.5℃ rather than 2℃ can further reduce risk of climate change. To understand 1.5℃related issues more clearly, higher resolution models and more experiments specifically designed for 1.5℃ global warming are needed in order to quantitatively analyze its impacts on natural and human systems at global and regional scales.

Key words: 1.5℃ global warming, global climate change, regional climate change, impact, risk

翟盘茂, 余荣, 周佰铨, 陈阳, 郭建平, 卢燕宇. 1.5℃增暖对全球和区域影响的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(5): 465-472.

Zhai Panmao, Yu Rong, Zhou Baiquan, Chen Yang, Guo Jianping, Lu Yanyu. Research Progress in Impact of 1.5℃Global Warming on Global and Regional Scales[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017, 13(5): 465-472.

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