Abstract: Using the CRU monthly data of the surface mean temperature and precipitation, and the output data of 22 AOGCMs participated in IPCC AR4, the preliminary analysis of AOGCMs simulated capability in East Asia for the 20th century has been evaluated in this paper. The results indicate that there are large differences among GCMs, although GCMs have a certain capability to simulate current climate over East Asia. Compared with the single model, the ensemble mean is better. In general, the simulated temperature is lower, and the simulated precipitation is higher than the observations. According to both analyses of spatial distribution of 20-year mean and the time series of the 20th century, the result of simulated temperature is better than that of simulated precipitation.

Key words: AOGCM, temperature, precipitation, ensemble mean, East Asia