Abstract:

Climate change is promoting the global energy system to transition to renewable energy, but it brings new challenges along with the increase in emissions in the upstream and downstream of its industrial chain. From a global industry chains perspective, this study systematically investigated the dynamics and driving mechanisms of embodied carbon emissions in the renewable energy power generation sector using multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA), with a focus on the impact of trade linkages among key countries. Furthermore, the impact of uncertain information on accounting outcomes was examined. The results are as follows. (1) From 2016 to 2022, the global net transfer of CO₂ in the renewable energy power generation sectors decreased by 2.49%. (2) Overall demand growth was the predominant factor driving the increase in embodied carbon emissions, the optimization effect of production structure played a significant role in reducing carbon emissions. (3) The carbon emission intensity effect of wind and solar thermal power generation sectors initially decreased before increasing, reflecting the intricate interplay between technological advancement and scale expansion. (4) Renewable energy power products in the upstream production stages of China, the United States, Germany, Mexico, and other countries saw significant increases. Notably, Germany, as an exporter, experienced a 70% rise in embodied carbon emissions within the renewable energy sector due to its exported products, underscoring the critical role of international trade in energy transition and carbon reduction. This study offers new insights into the complex role of renewable energy in the global energy transition and provides a scientific foundation for formulating precise emission reduction strategies.

Key words: Renewable energy power sector, Global industry chains, Trade linkages, Embodied CO₂, Driving factors, Structure decomposition analysis (SDA)