Abstract:

Urban agglomerations are the agglomerations of China’s economic development and energy consumption, as well as the main source of carbon emissions. The study of the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in China’s typical urban agglomerations is of great significance for the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The carbon emission driving factors (population size, economic level, industrial structure, energy intensity and energy structure) of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations were analyzed by using ST-IDA model and LMDI decomposition method. The results are as follows. During 2000-2019, the overall trend of CO₂ emissions from energy activities in the four major urban agglomerations stepped from the “high growth stage” to the “stable growth stage”, among which the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration have basically achieved the carbon peak; The energy intensity effect is the main factor affecting the spatial differences in carbon emissions; The expansion of population size, the increase of economic development level and the rise of energy intensity are the main factors contributing to the growth of carbon emissions in the four major urban agglomerations, while the optimization of industrial structure and energy consumption structure plays a suppressive role; The spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in the four major urban agglomerations depends mainly on the industrial sector. Since the four major urban agglomerations present different carbon emission characteristics, differentiated and diversified emission reduction paths should be explored in the future to promote carbon emission reduction in urban agglomerations.

Key words: Carbon emissions, Driving factors, ST-IDA model, Spatial-temporal decomposition, Urban agglomerations