中国海上风电制氢技术经济性研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.039

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

聚焦中国海上风电制氢技术的经济性评估，通过构建平准化制氢成本（LCOH）模型对海上风电交流输电岸上制氢、直流输电岸上制氢、平台制氢管道输氢以及平台制氢船舶运氢进行研究，考虑电解槽种类以及离岸距离对制氢技术经济性的影响，设置了8种技术方案，3种情景（离岸距离分别为20、60、100 km)。此外，选取风电电价和电解槽成本对制氢技术经济性进行灵敏度分析。研究表明：(1)平台制氢的经济性优于岸上制氢。当离岸距离超过20 km时，海上平台制氢结合船舶运输方案更具成本优势。(2)岸上制氢中，与交流输电相比，由于直流电缆成本低、损耗小，因此直流输电更具竞争力。(3)碱性电解槽（ALK）技术较质子交换膜（PEM）更具备显著成本竞争力，基准情景下LCOH分别为38.94~44.33元/kg和53.68~60.39元/kg。(4)电价与电解槽投资成本对LCOH的影响均呈线性特征，当电价或电解槽设备投资成本上升时制氢成本呈线性增长。(5)若采用海上风电弃电（电力价格为0)，岸基制氢成本显著降低，大幅提升氢气的经济性，同时有助于改善当前海上风电消纳能力不足的现状。

关键词: 海上风电, 电解水制氢, 平准化制氢成本（LCOH）, 经济性

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the economic evaluation of offshore wind-powered hydrogen production technologies in China based on a levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) model. Four hydrogen production and transportation schemes are investigated: onshore hydrogen production via Alternating Current (AC) transmission, onshore hydrogen production via Direct Current (DC) transmission, offshore platform-based hydrogen production with pipeline transport, and offshore platform-based hydrogen production with ship transport. Considering the impact of electrolyzer types and offshore distances on the economic performance of these technologies, a total of eight technological schemes and three offshore distance scenarios (20 km, 60 km, and 100 km) are examined. Additionally, an analysis is conducted on the sensitivity of the wind power price and electrolyzer cost on the economic performance of hydrogen production technologies. The findings indicate that: (1) Offshore platform-based hydrogen production is more economical than onshore hydrogen production. When the offshore distance exceeds 20 km, platform-based hydrogen production combined with ship transport offers greater cost advantages. (2) For onshore hydrogen production, DC transmission is more competitive than AC transmission due to the lower cost and reduced losses of DC cables. (3) Alkaline electrolyzer (ALK) technology has a significant cost advantage over Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) technology, with baseline scenario LCOH ranging from CNY 38.94 to 44.33 kg for ALK and CNY 53.68 to 60.39 kg for PEM. (4) Both electricity price and electrolyzer capital cost have a linear impact on LCOH, hydrogen production costs are directly proportional to electricity price and electrolyzer investment cost. (5) If the abandoned electricity from offshore wind power is adopted (with a cost of 0), the cost of hydrogen production based on the shore will be significantly reduced, greatly enhancing the economic efficiency of hydrogen. At the same time, it will help improve the current situation of insufficient capacity to accommodate offshore wind power.

Key words: Offshore wind power, Hydrogen from electrolytic water, Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) production, Economics

徐燕, 裴佳梅, 张欣钰. 中国海上风电制氢技术经济性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(5): 698-708.

XU Yan, PEI Jia-Mei, ZHANG Xin-Yu. The economic feasibility of hydrogen production technology from offshore wind power in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(5): 698-708.

图/表 12

表1 海上风电制氢技术路线对比[25-29]

Table 1 Comparison of hydrogen production technology routes from offshore wind power[25-29]

图1 海上风电制氢技术方案拓扑图

Fig. 1 Topology of offshore wind hydrogen production technology schemes

表2 初始投资成本基本参数

Table 2 Basic parameters of initial investment costs

表3 原材料成本参数

Table 3 Cost parameters of raw materials

表4 制氢期间运维成本参数

Table 4 Operation and maintenance cost parameters during hydrogen production

表5 制氢项目公共参数[39]

Table 5 Public parameters for hydrogen production projects[39]

表6 制氢原料中的风电成本

Table 6 Wind power cost in hydrogen production raw materials

图2 不同制氢技术方案中海上风电的平准化度电成本（LCOE）构成

Fig. 2 Composition of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for offshore wind power in different hydrogen production technical schemes

表7 海上风电制氢技术的平准化制氢成本（LCOH）

Table 7 Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of offshore wind power hydrogen production

图3 不同制氢技术方案成本构成

Fig. 3 Cost components of different hydrogen production technology options

图4 不同方案LCOH随海上风电电价的变化

Fig. 4 Variation of LCOH with offshore wind power tariff for different scenarios

图5 不同方案LCOH随电解槽设备投资成本的变化图

Fig. 5 Variation of LCOH with investment cost of electrolyzer equipment for different scenarios

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