IPCC第七次评估报告第一工作组“气候变化科学基础”大纲解读及启示

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.059

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (4): 477-483.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.059

• IPCC AR7 大纲解读专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

IPCC第七次评估报告第一工作组“气候变化科学基础”大纲解读及启示

周天军¹^,²(), 陈晓龙¹, 张文霞¹, 江洁¹, 胡帅¹

1 中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室，北京 100029
2 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2025-03-17 修回日期:2025-06-19 出版日期:2025-07-30 发布日期:2025-07-03
作者简介:周天军，男，研究员，zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42588201);中国科学院全球共性挑战专项计划项目(060GJHZ2023079GC)

Interpretation and implications of the chapter outline of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report

ZHOU Tian-Jun¹^,²(), CHEN Xiao-Long¹, ZHANG Wen-Xia¹, JIANG Jie¹, HU Shuai¹

1 State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2025-03-17 Revised:2025-06-19 Online:2025-07-30 Published:2025-07-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2025年2月，IPCC第62次全会审议通过了第七次评估周期（AR7）第一工作组（WGI）报告大纲，为后续组织编写第七次科学评估报告奠定了基础。主报告包括框架概要、当前状况和趋势、未来变化、支持应对的信息等四部分内容共10章。文中扼要介绍了该报告所关注的当前状况和趋势、未来变化、支持应对的信息这三大领域的评估内容和要点。指出与第六次评估报告（AR6）相比，AR7 WGI的大纲结构具有三方面的新特点：一是篇幅大幅压缩，特别是关于地球系统变化过程理解的内容；二是高度关注排放情景与未来全球温升的关系、地球系统的突变、小概率-高影响事件和临界点等问题；三是加强了支持应对方面的信息评估，包括评估气候干预（包括过冲路径）下的地球系统响应。基于AR7 WGI报告大纲的启发，针对我国亟需加强的研究工作进行了讨论，包括加强针对未来排放情景的设计研究，加强区域气候变化研究的方法学和数据创新，加快能够支撑基于排放驱动的气候预估的地球系统模式的研发，加强针对气候稳定性、可逆性和临界点问题的研究，以及开展关于气候干预的影响评估等。

关键词: IPCC, 第七次评估报告, 第一工作组报告大纲, 气候状况, 未来变化, 应对信息

Abstract:

In February 2025, the 62nd session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved the chapter outline of the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), laying the foundation for the subsequent drafting of AR7. The main report includes four sections: framework overview, current status and trends, future changes, and information supporting adaptation, organized into ten chapters. This paper briefly introduces the key content and assessments in three major areas of focus for AR7 WGI: “Current Status and Trends” (Chapters 2-4) assesses large-scale climate system changes, regional climate extremes, and advances in Earth system processes (e.g., biogeochemical cycles, energy/water fluxes); “Future Changes” (Chapters 5-8) introduces first-ever standalone chapters on emission scenarios/global temperature projections and Earth system tipping points, alongside global/regional climate projections; “Information Supporting Adaptation” (Chapters 9-10) evaluates Earth system responses under net-zero/overshoot pathways and integrates climate services with Indigenous knowledge for policy applications. Compared to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the AR7 WGI chapter outline presents three new features: (1) a significant reduction in length, especially regarding the understanding of Earth system processes through consolidating AR6’s five process-oriented chapters into one unified chapter (Chapter 4) to spotlight post-AR6 breakthroughs; (2) a heightened focus on the relationship between emission scenarios and future global warming, Earth system tipping points, low probability-high impact events, and critical thresholds; and (3) a stronger emphasis on evaluating information to support adaptation, including the assessment of Earth system responses to climate interventions (including overshoot pathways) and cross-WG coordination. Based on insights from the WGI chapter outline, this paper discusses five critical research areas that need strengthening in China: developing future emission scenarios independent of the current Western narratives, innovating methodologies and data by using km-scale storm-resolving models and AI in regional climate change research, accelerating Earth system model development with full carbon cycle representation for emission-driven climate projections, deepening foundational research on climate stability, reversibility, and tipping points, as well as assessing impact of climate interventions.

Key words: IPCC, Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), Working Group I chapter outline, Climate status, Future changes, Adaptation information

周天军, 陈晓龙, 张文霞, 江洁, 胡帅. IPCC第七次评估报告第一工作组“气候变化科学基础”大纲解读及启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(4): 477-483.

ZHOU Tian-Jun, CHEN Xiao-Long, ZHANG Wen-Xia, JIANG Jie, HU Shuai. Interpretation and implications of the chapter outline of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 477-483.

图/表 1

参考文献 11

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IPCC第七次评估报告第一工作组“气候变化科学基础”大纲解读及启示

Interpretation and implications of the chapter outline of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report

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