金砖国家甲烷排放特征与减排合作方向探讨

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.092

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

甲烷排放对全球变暖的影响已引起国内外广泛关注，金砖国家作为全球甲烷排放的重要来源，其减排对全球气候治理具有重要意义。基于欧盟EDGAR数据，文中对1970—2023年间金砖五国甲烷排放特征进行量化分析，并采用Tapio 脱钩模型研究分析其甲烷排放与经济发展的脱钩关系，结合各国已采取的政策行动提出未来金砖国家在甲烷治理方面的合作建议。研究显示，金砖五国甲烷排放量占全球比重超过1/3，且排放量呈逐年上升趋势，2014—2023年年均增速超过全球平均水平。整体而言，金砖五国甲烷排放与经济增长呈弱脱钩状态，即甲烷排放与经济同步增长、但经济增速更快。其中，巴西和俄罗斯近年来经济发展与甲烷排放存在密切联系，仍未脱钩。从排放结构看，2023年能源活动、农业活动、废弃物处理和其他来源甲烷排放占比分别为29.5%、47.0%、20.3%和3.2%。此外，1970—2023年间金砖国家甲烷排放强度均呈下降趋势，中国降幅最明显，印度人均排放量最低。尽管金砖五国尚未设定具体的甲烷减排目标，但各国已结合自身排放特征开展了一系列甲烷控排行动。随着近年来气候变化领域合作的持续加强，为充分发挥金砖国家合作机制优势，建议在推动设立甲烷减排工作组、加强政策协调、深化技术共享、拓展资金支持等方面开展系统合作，助力全球甲烷控排。

关键词: 金砖国家, 甲烷, 脱钩指数, 减排合作

Abstract:

The impact of methane emissions on global warming has attracted widespread attention worldwide. As a significant source of global methane emissions, the BRICS countries play a crucial role in global climate governance through their emission reduction efforts. Based on the EDGAR database, a quantitative analysis of methane emission characteristics in BRICS countries from 1970 to 2023 was conducted, the Tapio decoupling model was employed to examine the decoupling relationship between methane emissions and economic development, and future cooperation suggestions in methane management among BRICS countries by combining existing policies were proposed in this study. The results show that the BRICS countries have contributed over one-third to global methane emissions, showing an upward trend with an average annual growth rate in the past decade exceeding the global average. Overall, BRICS countries demonstrate weak decoupling between methane emissions and economic growth, indicating synchronized growth with faster economic expansion. However, Brazil and Russia have not shown a decoupling trend, where economic development still closely linked to methane emissions. Regarding emission structure, BRICS methane emissions primarily originated from energy activities (29.5%), agricultural activities (47.0%), waste management (20.3%), and other sectors (3.2%) in 2023. From 1970 to 2023, methane emission intensity in all BRICS countries showed declining trends, with China achieving the fastest reduction rate, while India maintained the lowest per capita emissions. Although BRICS members have not established specific mandatory methane reduction targets, their recent strengthened cooperation in climate change presents opportunities. To fully leverage the BRICS cooperation mechanism and amplify climate, environmental, and economic benefits of methane mitigation, systematic collaboration was proposed through establishing a methane reduction working group, enhancing policy coordination, promoting technology sharing, and expanding financial support, thereby advancing global methane governance.

Key words: BRICS countries, Methane, Decoupling index, Cooperation on emission reduction

李可心, 杨儒浦, 李丽平, 王敏. 金砖国家甲烷排放特征与减排合作方向探讨[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(6): 807-817.

LI Ke-Xin, YANG Ru-Pu, LI Li-Ping, WANG Min. Discussion on methane emission characteristics and cooperation directions for emission reduction in BRICS countries[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 807-817.

图/表 10

表1 脱钩状态

Table 1 State of division

图1 1970—2023年全球甲烷排放情况

Fig. 1 Global methane emissions from 1970 to 2023

图2 1970—2023年全球主要国家甲烷排放情况

Fig. 2 Global methane emissions in major countries from 1970 to 2023

表2 金砖五国及典型发达国家甲烷排放与经济增长脱钩状态

Table 2 The decoupling status between methane emissions and economic growth in BRICS countries and typical developed countries

图3 1990—2023年金砖五国关键排放源

Fig. 3 Key methane emission sources in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2023

表3 2023年金砖五国细分领域排放结构

Table 3 Emission structure of BRICS countries by subsector in 2023

图4 1970—2023年金砖五国甲烷排放强度

Fig. 4 Methane emission intensity in BRICS countries from 1970 to 2023

图5 1970—2023年金砖五国人均甲烷排放量

Fig. 5 Per capita methane emissions in BRICS countries from 1970 to 2023

表4 金砖五国甲烷控排政策行动

Table 4 Methane emission control policy actions of BRICS countries

表5 金砖国家相关联合声明和活动

Table 5 Relevant joint statements and activities of the BRICS countries

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