绿色电力证书对城市屋顶光伏经济性及地方可再生能源消纳目标的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.063

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (6): 839-852.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.063

绿色电力证书对城市屋顶光伏经济性及地方可再生能源消纳目标的影响

段舒扬¹(), 吴佳琪¹, 刘俊伶¹^,²()

1 哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）经济管理学院，深圳 518055
2 深圳市人文社会科学重点研究基地哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）碳达峰碳中和技术、政策与管理研究中心，深圳 518055

收稿日期:2025-03-16 修回日期:2025-06-04 出版日期:2025-11-30 发布日期:2025-11-11
通讯作者: 刘俊伶，女，副教授，liujunling@hit.edu.cn
作者简介:段舒扬，女，本科生，210710113@stu.hit.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金“1.5℃目标约束下中国能源技术系统高精度与双向能流反馈建模研究”(72004043);深圳市基础研究专项面上项目“双碳目标下深圳市分布式光伏发展模式比较研究”(JCYJ20220531095408018);政策与管理研究中心资助项目

Impact of Green Electricity Certificate on the economic viability of urban rooftop photovoltaics and local renewable energy consumption targets

DUAN Shu-Yang¹(), WU Jia-Qi¹, LIU Jun-Ling¹^,²()

1 School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China
2 Shenzhen Humanities & Social Sciences Key Research Base for Carbon Emission Peaking and Carbon Neutral Technology, Policy, and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China

Received:2025-03-16 Revised:2025-06-04 Online:2025-11-30 Published:2025-11-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

绿色电力证书（绿证）为屋顶光伏提供了经济激励，显著提升了投资吸引力，并通过纳入节能评价考核，为地方政府推动可再生能源开发提供了动力。文中选取了9个省份的100个城市，结合当地气象条件、屋顶面积、用电负荷与光伏政策，对工商业与居民建筑开展仿真建模与成本收益测算。结果表明，绿证显著提升了屋顶光伏项目的经济性，20%的城市由非经济性转为经济性，所有城市的净现值平均增加2.15亿元，内部收益率和动态回收期也有所改善。其中，居民建筑因自耗率较低，更多上网电量参与绿证交易，因此收益提升更显著。从地区影响来看，经济欠发达地区由于自耗率较低，绿证收益更高，表明绿证有助于缩小城市间屋顶光伏经济性差异，推动区域可再生能源的平衡发展。从节能评价考核视角看，屋顶光伏本地消纳对消纳责任权重的贡献率中位数达到58.75%（1.25%~264.23%)，显示出屋顶光伏在实现地方可再生能源消纳目标中的重要作用。此外，敏感性分析表明，绿证价格波动对光伏自耗率较低城市的项目收益影响更大。研究为各省优化分布式光伏部署及落实可再生能源电力消纳责任权重目标提供了科学依据。

关键词: 城市屋顶光伏, 绿色电力证书, 经济性, 可再生能源电力消纳

Abstract:

Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) offers new economic incentives for rooftop photovoltaic (PV) projects, significantly enhancing investment attractiveness. Additionally, the inclusion of traded GEC electricity volumes in the government energy-saving evaluation metrics motivates local governments to advance renewable energy development. This study selected 100 cities across 9 provinces, integrating local meteorological conditions, rooftop area, electricity consumption load, and PV policies, to conduct simulation modeling and cost-benefit analysis for both commercial and residential buildings. The results indicate that GEC significantly improves the economic viability of rooftop PV projects, with 20% of cities transitioning from non-economical to economical status. The average net present value (NPV) across all cities increases by CNY 215 million, while the internal rate of return (IRR) and dynamic payback period (DPBP) also show improvements. Notably, residential buildings, due to their lower self-consumption rates and higher grid-fed electricity participating in GEC trading, experience more substantial revenue increases. From a regional perspective, economically underdeveloped areas, characterized by lower self-consumption rates, benefit more from GEC revenues, demonstrating that GEC can help narrow the economic disparity in rooftop PV adoption among cities and promote balanced regional renewable energy development. Additionally, local consumption of rooftop PV could contribute a median of 58.75% (1.25%-264.23%) of the non-hydro renewable energy consumption targets, highlighting the critical role of rooftop PV in achieving local renewable energy goals. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cities with lower self-consumption rates are more affected by GEC price fluctuations. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing distributed PV deployment and achieving renewable energy consumption targets at the provincial level.

Key words: Urban rooftop photovoltaic (PV), Green Electricity Certificate (GEC), Economic viability, Renewable electricity quota

段舒扬, 吴佳琪, 刘俊伶. 绿色电力证书对城市屋顶光伏经济性及地方可再生能源消纳目标的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(6): 839-852.

DUAN Shu-Yang, WU Jia-Qi, LIU Jun-Ling. Impact of Green Electricity Certificate on the economic viability of urban rooftop photovoltaics and local renewable energy consumption targets[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 839-852.

图/表 10

图1 绿证对城市屋顶光伏经济性及可再生能源消纳的影响分析框架

Fig. 1 Analysis framework for the impact of Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) on the economic viability and renewable energy consumption of urban rooftop photovoltaics

表1 数据来源与假设

Table 1 Data sources and assumptions

图2 绿证实施后居民建筑LCOE增量

Fig. 2 Increase in LCOE of residential buildings after the implementation of GEC

图3 绿证实施后居民建筑IRR增量(a)及与自耗率关系(b)

Fig. 3 Incremental change of the IRR of residential buildings (a) after the implementation of GEC and their self-consumption rates (b)

表2 屋顶光伏IRR变化最显著的20个城市

Table 2 The 20 cities with the most significant changes in rooftop photovoltaic (PV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

图4 绿证实施后居民建筑NPV变化情况

Fig. 4 Changes in the Net Present Value (NPV) of residential buildings after the implementation of GEC

图5 绿证实施前后居民建筑的DPBP变化情况注：图为绿证核发前DPBP<25年的城市（共55个城市）的缩短年限分布。

Fig. 5 Changes in the Dynamic Investment Pay-back Period (DPBP) of residential buildings after the implementation of GEC

表3 绿证影响下不同城市屋顶光伏项目IRR与NPV表现聚类结果

Table 3 Clustering results of IRR and NPV performance of rooftop PV in different cities under the influence of GEC

表4 各省（区）屋顶光伏对可再生能源电力消纳责任权重目标的潜在贡献

Table 4 Potential contribution of residential and commercial rooftop photovoltaics to the renewable energy power consumption obligation targets

图6 绿证价格提高(a)和减少(b) 10%后经济指标变化

Fig. 6 Changes in the economic indicators with a 10% increase (a) and a 10% decrease (b) in GEC prices

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绿色电力证书对城市屋顶光伏经济性及地方可再生能源消纳目标的影响

Impact of Green Electricity Certificate on the economic viability of urban rooftop photovoltaics and local renewable energy consumption targets

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