冰盖快速消退极端情景下中国海平面上升风险

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.308

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (5): 602-612.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.308

• 创刊20周年纪念专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

冰盖快速消退极端情景下中国海平面上升风险

方佳毅¹^,²(), 张通³(), 效存德³

¹ 杭州师范大学遥感与地球科学研究院，杭州 311121
² 浙江省城市湿地与区域变化研究重点实验室，杭州 311121
³ 北京师范大学地表过程与水土风沙灾害风险防控全国重点实验室，北京 100875

收稿日期:2024-12-17 修回日期:2025-05-01 出版日期:2025-09-30 发布日期:2025-09-05
通讯作者: 张通，男，副教授，tzhang@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:方佳毅，女，副教授，jyfang@hznu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271133);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42571085);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(ZJMZ25D050010);北京师范大学人才引进项目(12807-312232101);国际合作团队项目“北极冰冻圈关键过程及其影响”(2022-GJTD-01)

Risk of sea level rise in China under extreme scenarios of rapid ice sheet retreat

FANG Jia-Yi¹^,²(), ZHANG Tong³(), XIAO Cun-De³

¹ Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
² Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change, Hangzhou 311121, China
³ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2024-12-17 Revised:2025-05-01 Online:2025-09-30 Published:2025-09-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前全球平均海平面上升处于加速状态。本研究评估了在冰盖快速消退极端情景下中国海平面上升导致的永久性淹没风险，采用高程面积法对未来情景下海平面上升淹没范围进行模拟。在未来SSP1-2.6与SSP5-8.5气候情景下，中国沿海地区新增静态永久性淹没范围从2100年的0.32%~2.29%上升到2150年的1.14%~6.33%。现有沿海设防可较好地应对缓发性永久淹没的过程，主要风险存在于因基础水位抬升引起的高潮位洪水和顶托效应，以及对极端洪水致灾频率的放大效应，需要及时评估沿海设防水平的能力并采取相应措施，重视极端复合灾害放大效应的影响。在未来冰盖不稳定的“黑天鹅”情景下，海平面上升范围将远远超过沿海设防能力，导致大范围的缓发性静态淹没。到2300年时，“黑天鹅”情景下的淹没范围占沿海地区比例将达6.26%~18.89%。极地冰盖失稳会导致极高的海平面上升速率，预留给沿海适应（如提高设防）的窗口期较为短暂，容易引发系统性的风险。沿海地区需重视海平面上升的“灰犀牛”和“黑天鹅”情景下的新兴风险，以满足气候变化适应规划和风险管理决策的需求。

关键词: 海平面上升, 冰盖不稳定, 黑天鹅, 灰犀牛, 新兴风险

Abstract:

The current global average sea level rise is experiencing an acceleration. This study assesses the risk of permanent inundation in coastal China caused by sea-level rise under the extreme scenario of rapid ice sheet retreat. The bath-tub approach is employed to simulate the inundation extent due to future sea-level rise. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the newly added static permanent inundation area along the coast of China increases from 0.32%-2.29% in 2100 to 1.14%-6.33% in 2150. Existing coastal defenses can effectively cope with the process of gradual permanent inundation, with major risks lying in high-tide flooding and backwater effects caused by the rise in baseline water levels, as well as the amplification effect on the frequency of extreme coastal floods. It is necessary to promptly assess the capabilities of coastal defense levels and take corresponding measures, emphasizing the impact of amplification effects from extreme compound disasters. In the Black Swan scenario of ice sheet instability, the range of sea-level rise far exceeds coastal defense capabilities, leading to widespread static inundation. By 2300, the inundation areas will account for 6.26%-18.89% of coastal regions. The destabilization of polar ice sheets can lead to extremely high rates of sea-level rise, leaving a relatively short window for coastal adaptation measures, such as enhanced defenses, and increasing the risk of systemic failures. Coastal regions need to prioritize emerging risks under the Gray Rhino and Black Swan scenarios of sea-level rise to meet the demands of climate change adaptation planning and risk management decisions.

Key words: Sea level rise, Ice sheet instability, Black Swan, Grey Rhino, Emerging risks

方佳毅, 张通, 效存德. 冰盖快速消退极端情景下中国海平面上升风险[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(5): 602-612.

FANG Jia-Yi, ZHANG Tong, XIAO Cun-De. Risk of sea level rise in China under extreme scenarios of rapid ice sheet retreat[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(5): 602-612.

图/表 5

表1 全球平均海平面变化预测（相对于1995—2014年）

Table 1 Global mean sea level change projections (relative to 1995-2014)

图1 冰盖快速消退极端情景下海平面上升淹没模拟空间分布(a) DEM < 10 m的沿海连续低地，(b)灰犀牛情景，(c)黑天鹅情景

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of sea level rise inundation simulation under extreme scenarios of rapid ice sheet retreat. (a) Coastal lowlands with DEM < 10 m, (b) Gray Rhino scenario, (c) Black Swan scenario

图2 冰盖快速消退极端情景下海平面上升淹没范围统计

Fig. 2 Sea level rise inundation extent statistics under extreme scenarios of rapid ice sheet retreat

表2 冰盖快速消退极端情景下沿海各行政区受淹没面积统计

Table 2 Inundation statistics under extreme scenarios of rapid ice sheet retreat

图3 在未来海平面上升和地面沉降情况下连云港(a)和厦门(b)极端海平面重现期变化

Fig. 3 Extreme sea levels for the Lianyungang (a) and Xiamen (b) tide gauge stations under sea level rise scenarios and subsidence scenario. (Dashed grey lines for display purpose, sampling method is GEV-r1)

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冰盖快速消退极端情景下中国海平面上升风险

Risk of sea level rise in China under extreme scenarios of rapid ice sheet retreat

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