ISSN 1673-1719 CN 11-5368/P
 Table of Content
 30 March 2018, Volume 14 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
 Select Projection of population and economy in the Belt and Road countries (2020‒2060) Tong JIANG, Yan-Jun WANG, Jia-Shuang YUAN, Ying CHEN, Xiang GAO, Cheng JING, Guo-Fu WANG, Xian-Hua WU, Cheng-Yi ZHAO Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 155-164.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.177 Abstract ( 1871 )   HTML ( 30 )     PDF (6496KB) ( 1334 )   In this paper, assumptions of IPCC five shared socioeconomic pathways are used to project future population and economy in the Belt and Road countries under the Sustainability road (SSP1), Middle of the road (SSP2), Regional Rivalry (SSP3), Inequality road (SSP4), and Fossil-fueled Development road (SSP5). The projected population and economic development scenarios could support the studies on climate change impact, risk, adaptation and mitigation. The results show that: (1) population and GDP in the Belt and Road countries made up 62.3% and 31.2% of the world total in 2016, respectively. The Southeast Asia and South Asia along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road show large economic aggregate but low GDP per capita due to their high-density population. The Central Asia, West Asia, Eastern Europe and other regions along the Silk Road Economic Belthave sparsely distributed population and relatively developed economy. (2) Population and economy in the Belt and Road countries will increase overall in the future, but trends are significantly influenced by social economic policy. Under SSPs, population will increase 0.33 billion (SSP5) -1.83 (SSP3) billion and economy will grow to 3.0 (SSP3)-6.4 (SSP5) times in 2060 with relative to 2016. The percentage of population in the Belt and Road countries to the world total will decrease, but that of GDP will increase in the future. (3) In the mid-21st century (2051-2060), there will be 95 people and US$1.64 million GDP per square kilometer averaged over the Belt and Road countries, but differences in the projected population and economy among SSP1-SSP5 are obvious. The population in most countries will grow rapidly but the economy will develop slowly under SSP3, but trends are quite the contrary under SSP5. More than half of the countries’ GDP per capita will be above US$25 thousand under SSP5, while that at most countries will less than US$20 thousand under SSP3. Changes of population and economy for the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP4 will between the SSP3 and SSP5.  Select Climate change and urban total factor productivity:theory and empirical analysis Hao ZHANG, Jing TAN, Jian-Hua ZHANG Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 165-174. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.081 Abstract ( 872 ) HTML ( 10 ) PDF (1239KB) ( 495 ) This paper discusses the impact of climate change on urban total factor productivity (TFP) by using Chinese city data in 1994-2014. The results are as follows. Climate change (changes in temperature and precipitation) has negative impact on urban TFP. The influence of precipitation is more significant, but the impact of TFP on the eastern China cities is not obvious. The higher level of the economic development of the city, the smaller impact on its TFP by weather and climate change, and vice versa. The more reasonable urban industrial structure, the lower impact of weather and climate, the more unbalanced, the greater impact. Among them, the precipitation change has influence on the three major industries, and has the most significant impact on the first industry. Adaptation to Climate Change  Select The perception of climate change and adaptation strategies of farmers in the northeast edgemountianous of the Tibetan Plateau:a case of the middle reach of the Huangshui River Zhi-Rui HOU, Qiong CHEN, Qiang ZHOU, Feng-Gui LIU, Wei-Dong MA Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 175-181. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.099 Abstract ( 724 ) HTML ( 8 ) PDF (1692KB) ( 346 ) Farmers from the unit villages situated at different altitudes in the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau as the investigation objects, the investigation of the farmers’ perception and coping strategies for the climate change and meteorological disasters was carried out by using perception indensity formula and expert evaluating method. The results showed that: (1) In 1961-2013, climate change of the middle reach of the Huangshui River tends to be warm and dry, 84% of the farmers believe that climate is warming, which has brought a serious impact on their daily life; (2) There are obvious differences in the perception of meteorological disasters among the farmers from three geographical units at different altitudes, farmers from low-mountain area have the strongest perception of dust, from higher mountain area have the strongest perception of insect pests, and those from the highest mountain area have the strongest perception of rainy days; (3) The farmers from different altitudes have different choices on their adaption strategies, from low-mountain area adopt combination adaption strategies of production, life and insurance, those from higher mountain area mainly adopt the combination adaption strategies of production and life, while those from the highest mountain area mainly adopt single productive adaption strategy to cope with the climate change. Greenhouse Gas Emissions  Select Game simulation on emission reduction under the background of the Paris Agreement Jing WU, Qian-Ting ZHU, Shi-Qi WANG, Zheng WANG Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 182-190. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.044 Abstract ( 793 ) HTML ( 10 ) PDF (2967KB) ( 463 ) A seven-region based integrated assessment model is established in this paper targeting to model the emission reduction game worldwide. Under the Paris Agreement, given the emission mitigation scheme by 2025/2030, 2050, and 2100 for each country (region) as gaming strategy, the Nash equilibrium, the uncertainties of the game and the influences from external mitigation mechanisms are evaluated in each strategy combinations. In the reference scenario, no country (region) would take emission reduction after 2030 for the sake of their own optimal social welfare improvement, leading the global temperature rising to 2.62℃ by 2100. The Nash equilibrium remains stable even when the climatic and economic parameters are disturbed. As an alternative, an external sanction on non-mitigation is applied; in this scenario, climate change mitigation propagates across countries (regions) according to various sanction levels, in which developed countries tend to adopt mitigation strategy earlier than developing countries as a response to the non-mitigation sanction. Meanwhile, under the Paris Agreement, simulation also reveals the emission reduction from 2030 to 2050 has become crucial for making the 2℃ threshold viable if no extra mitigations are implemented before 2030. An emission reduction target higher than the “developed and developing countries cutting emission 80% and 50% on 1990 level by 2050” is required in this circumstance, otherwise the global temperature will overshoot 2℃ around 2040. Forum  Select Progress and outlook of the negotiation of adaptation communication under the Ad-hoc Working Group of Paris Agreement Min-Peng CHEN, Yu-Cheng ZHANG, Shuo LIU, Yu’E LI Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 191-200. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.151 Abstract ( 841 ) HTML ( 8 ) PDF (1326KB) ( 325 ) Adaptation communication will link individual adaptation action at the national level with global goal on adaptation and collective adaptation efforts at the global level, in the regime of Paris Agreement. It is also the only agenda item on adaptation under the Ad Hoc Working Group of Paris Agreement (APA) and will exert profound influence on global adaptation actions and policies. This paper reviews the progress of negotiations on adaptation communications under APA, and analyzes the possible trends and outcomes of negotiations. Compared with most developing countries, China has relatively better adaptive and reporting capacity, and thus could take a more flexible stand in the negotiations. However, with calling on China to take the lead in global climate change action and provide adaptation support to developing countries, China will face increasing pressures in the negotiations. China should promote the South-South Cooperation on adaptation and the willingness to deepen the international cooperation without breaking the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities of the Convention.  Select Analysis and prediction of the seventh resources replenishment of the Global Environment Facility Lan CHEN, Wen-Tao WANG, Yi-Xin LI, Liu-Cai ZHU Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 201-209. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.006 Abstract ( 945 ) HTML ( 16 ) PDF (1316KB) ( 335 ) Based on the seventh resources replenishment (GEF-7) negotiation process of Global Environment Facility (GEF) and current world economic and political situation, it is predicted that the programming envelope of the GEF-7 will be between US$ 4.1 billion and US$4.4 billion, with a decrease of 0?7.5% over GEF-6 programming level. Meanwhile, the GEF will further its reform in promoting global environmental benefits, lowering the resources available to the emerging developing countries, prioritizing the needs of the least developing countries, more actively engaging with private sectors and improving its operational efficiency and effectiveness. As the biggest recipient and donor developing country, China will remain its eligibility in GEF-7 while being deeply affected in terms of resources allocation, project programming and designing, as well as the scale of contributions. Even in the status quo replenishment scenario, China’s STAR allocation in GEF-7 is expected to be reduced to US$ 143 million ?159 million. At the current stage, China needs to closely follow and actively participate in the GEF-7 replenishment negotiations, take overall consideration and plan ahead so as to promote the GEF reform consisting with the interests of China and other developing countries.