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 ISSN 1673-1719 CN 11-5368/P
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 30 March 2018, Volume 14 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Changes in Climate System
 Select The influence of tropical ocean on the South Asia High and the Western Pacifica Subtropical High Wan FENG, Guang-Zhou FAN, Yan-Yan LONG Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 111-119.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.069 Abstract ( 1349 )   HTML ( 44 )     PDF (3733KB) ( 585 )   The influence on both South Asia High (SAH) and the Western Pacifica Subtropical High (WPSH) during summertime is investigated in this paper with a development of a tropical sea surface temperature (SST), based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2010. Some reasons for both development of those two systems have been researched: When the systems are both strong and the SST is warm (the systems are week and the SST is cold), in the winter and spring season the equatorial Indian?Pacific SST anomaly shows a significant positive?negative?positive (negative?positive?negative) pattern, which is like the El Ni?o (La Ni?a) phenomenon. A high-level westerly (easterly) wind flows near Indochina troposphere, which is helpful (against) for anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the south, so as to promote (block) the development of SAH. The sinking (rising) flow in Philippine area is conducive (unfavorable) to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the northwest side, so as to promote (block) the development of lower WPSH. In summertime, warming of the tropical Indian Ocean SST increase (decrease) the local convection effect effectively, making the tropospheric temperature rising (reducing), which affects SAH and WPSH.
 Select Variations of precipitation form at the Great Wall station and Zhongshan station, Antarctica Wei HAN, Cun-De XIAO, Xiao-Yin GUO, Dong-Qi ZHANG Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 120-126.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.188 Abstract ( 847 )   HTML ( 28 )     PDF (2256KB) ( 455 )   In this paper, different precipitation form data (rainfall days and snowfall days) were analyzed based on the observations of automatic weather stations at the Great Wall station (GW) and Zhongshan station (ZS) during 1985-2015 and 1989-2015, respectively. The relationship between surface air temperature, Amundsen Sea Low and different precipitation form in the station were also discussed. The results showed that the precipitation days at GW were more than at ZS. The annual total precipitation days, rainfall days and snowfall days showed increasing trends at GW. During 1985-2015, the number of annual total precipitation days, rainfall days and snowfall days at GW were 236-343 d, 74-185 d and 157-282 d, respectively, with an increasing trend of 4.51 d/10a, 2.68 d/10a and 1.25 d/10a, respectively. At ZS, where the snowfall was the main precipitation form, the annual total precipitation days showed a slight decrease (1.30 d/10a) during 1989-2015 (104-173 d). The temperature was positively correlated with the ratio between rainfall days and precipitation days, especially in the autumn Mar?May, the ratio between rainfall days and precipitation days had an increasing trend significantly (4.36%/10a). It is suggested that a warmer climate may be associated with higher fraction of precipitation falling as rain in the vicinity of GW. And the Amundsen Sea Low also has an impact on the precipitation form in GW. The eastward moving of Amundsen Sea Low in autumn leads to the warm, wet winds that blow to the Antarctic Peninsula stronger. It is conducive to the rainfall in GW.
 Select Temporal and spatial variation of surface sensitive heat fluxes over the middle and eastern Tibetan Plateau Chao ZHANG, Rong-Xiang TIAN, Hui-Ling MAO, Zhi-Fei ZHANG, Zi-Wei SHEN Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 127-136.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.058 Abstract ( 857 )   HTML ( 8 )     PDF (8899KB) ( 226 )   Based on the site data of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 1970 to 2015, the sensible heat fluxes over the middle and eastern Tibetan Plateau were calculated by physical method. Moreover, according to the discrimination of average heat transfer coefficients over the middle and eastern TP, utilizing wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, we divided TP whose altitude is more than 3000 m into 7 areas to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of the sensible heat fluxes and impact factors over the TP during 1970?2015. It shows that the annual average and spring as well as summer season, sensible heat fluxes period was 3-4 a, while autumn and winter season 2-3 a. The trend of the sensible heat fluxes was increasing during 1970-1980 and 2001-2015, and decreasing during 1980-2001. The strongest heat center (maximum value of sensible heat fluxes) which include annual average and seasonal average emerged in area E (southern slope). However, the minimum value appears in area A of western TP (except summer). Its distribution was uniform in spring and autumn, and presented conspicuous gradient distribution in summer and in winter. In summer, the gradient direction was from east to west, while it was adverse in winter. Although correlation of annual averaged precipitation and annual averaged sensible heat fluxes was not high, it manifested high correlation in spring, summer and autumn. The seasonal transformation of the sensible heat flux was jointly determined by the variation of the 10 m extreme wind speed along the northward and southward and the ground-air temperature difference.
 Select Spatio-temporal changes of snow phenology in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the hydrological year of 1980-2009 De-Jing QIAO, Nian-Qin WANG, Zhen LI, Jian-Min ZHOU, Xi-You FU Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 137-143.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.088 Abstract ( 1020 )   HTML ( 14 )     PDF (5822KB) ( 605 )   Taking the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as the object of study, based on the daily dataset of snow depth from 1980 to 2009, the mean snow depth, snow cover start (SCS) and snow cover end (SCE) dates were calculated for each hydrological year, and the spatial and temporal variations and distribution anomaly of them were analyzed by using the spatial and statistics analysis function of GIS. The results showed that, mean snow depth decreased during the period of 1980-1989, and started to increase from the 1990s. In the 1980s, the SCS showed a significantly advanced trend, which mainly occurred in the high altitude region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau except the Altun Mountains and Kunlun Mountains. The SCE showed a significantly delay, occurred in the high altitude region. In the 1990s, the advanced trend of SCS in the high altitude region showed a slightly delayed trend, but the SCS in the central plateau hinterland showed a significantly advanced trend. The SCE in the high altitude region became weak. And the SCE in the central plateau hinterland showed a delayed trend. In the beginning of the 21st century, the SCS in the Pamir Plateau, Nyainqentanglula Mountains and Transverse Mountains showed a significantly delay trend. The SCE in the Hengduan Mountain, Nianqing Tanggula and Bayan Hara Mountain showed a significantly advanced trend. Generally, the snow phenology showed different spatial patterns and evolution trends in different regions.
 Select Climate comfort distribution, change and projection in Yunnan province Jian-Qin ZHOU, Wei HUANG, Yong ZHU, Meng LI, Bo-Tao ZHOU Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 144-154.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.065 Abstract ( 1328 )   HTML ( 21 )     PDF (3642KB) ( 713 )   Based on climate observation (daily mean temperature data etc.) from 1961 to 2015 and regional climate model results from 2016 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate comfort index of Yunnan province was calculated, then the spatial and temporal evolution and influence factors were investigated by linear trend and path analysis, finally the projection for future trends was made. The results shows: (1) The number of comfort days for Yunnan regional average accounted for 55% of year-round total days, which presented a decrease trend in spatial distribution from south to north with the biggest number of days in summer. The number of chill days came second, accounted for 23% of annual total days, and showed an increase trend from south to north with the biggest number of days in winter. The number of cold days held the proportion of annual days with 20% (being slightly less than that of chill days), while the number of hot days only accounted for 1%. (2) The number of chill/comfort days in Yunnan showed an obvious decreasing/increasing trend during 1961-2015, and the cold and hot days both showed no significant trend. (3) The temperature was the main factors of change of Yunnan climate comfort days, then was the wind speed, the relative humidity will influence the change of comfort days just in the case of high temperature. (4) Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, during 2016-2099, the spatial and temporal evolution of chill/comfort days in Yunnan showed a/an decreasing/increasing trend, the spatial of cold days showed a decreasing trend, the temporal evolution of cold days showed an increasing trend in northwest of Yunnan but a decreasing trend in other areas, the hot days showed an increasing trend in the south of Yunnan.
Impacts of Climate Change
 Select Projection of population and economy in the Belt and Road countries (2020‒2060) Tong JIANG, Yan-Jun WANG, Jia-Shuang YUAN, Ying CHEN, Xiang GAO, Cheng JING, Guo-Fu WANG, Xian-Hua WU, Cheng-Yi ZHAO Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 155-164.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.177 Abstract ( 2196 )   HTML ( 43 )     PDF (6496KB) ( 1642 )   In this paper, assumptions of IPCC five shared socioeconomic pathways are used to project future population and economy in the Belt and Road countries under the Sustainability road (SSP1), Middle of the road (SSP2), Regional Rivalry (SSP3), Inequality road (SSP4), and Fossil-fueled Development road (SSP5). The projected population and economic development scenarios could support the studies on climate change impact, risk, adaptation and mitigation. The results show that: (1) population and GDP in the Belt and Road countries made up 62.3% and 31.2% of the world total in 2016, respectively. The Southeast Asia and South Asia along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road show large economic aggregate but low GDP per capita due to their high-density population. The Central Asia, West Asia, Eastern Europe and other regions along the Silk Road Economic Belthave sparsely distributed population and relatively developed economy. (2) Population and economy in the Belt and Road countries will increase overall in the future, but trends are significantly influenced by social economic policy. Under SSPs, population will increase 0.33 billion (SSP5) -1.83 (SSP3) billion and economy will grow to 3.0 (SSP3)-6.4 (SSP5) times in 2060 with relative to 2016. The percentage of population in the Belt and Road countries to the world total will decrease, but that of GDP will increase in the future. (3) In the mid-21st century (2051-2060), there will be 95 people and US$1.64 million GDP per square kilometer averaged over the Belt and Road countries, but differences in the projected population and economy among SSP1-SSP5 are obvious. The population in most countries will grow rapidly but the economy will develop slowly under SSP3, but trends are quite the contrary under SSP5. More than half of the countries’ GDP per capita will be above US$25 thousand under SSP5, while that at most countries will less than US$20 thousand under SSP3. Changes of population and economy for the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP4 will between the SSP3 and SSP5.  Select Climate change and urban total factor productivity:theory and empirical analysis Hao ZHANG, Jing TAN, Jian-Hua ZHANG Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 165-174. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.081 Abstract ( 1010 ) HTML ( 12 ) PDF (1239KB) ( 628 ) This paper discusses the impact of climate change on urban total factor productivity (TFP) by using Chinese city data in 1994-2014. The results are as follows. Climate change (changes in temperature and precipitation) has negative impact on urban TFP. The influence of precipitation is more significant, but the impact of TFP on the eastern China cities is not obvious. The higher level of the economic development of the city, the smaller impact on its TFP by weather and climate change, and vice versa. The more reasonable urban industrial structure, the lower impact of weather and climate, the more unbalanced, the greater impact. Among them, the precipitation change has influence on the three major industries, and has the most significant impact on the first industry. Adaptation to Climate Change  Select The perception of climate change and adaptation strategies of farmers in the northeast edgemountianous of the Tibetan Plateau:a case of the middle reach of the Huangshui River Zhi-Rui HOU, Qiong CHEN, Qiang ZHOU, Feng-Gui LIU, Wei-Dong MA Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 175-181. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.099 Abstract ( 876 ) HTML ( 10 ) PDF (1692KB) ( 493 ) Farmers from the unit villages situated at different altitudes in the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau as the investigation objects, the investigation of the farmers’ perception and coping strategies for the climate change and meteorological disasters was carried out by using perception indensity formula and expert evaluating method. The results showed that: (1) In 1961-2013, climate change of the middle reach of the Huangshui River tends to be warm and dry, 84% of the farmers believe that climate is warming, which has brought a serious impact on their daily life; (2) There are obvious differences in the perception of meteorological disasters among the farmers from three geographical units at different altitudes, farmers from low-mountain area have the strongest perception of dust, from higher mountain area have the strongest perception of insect pests, and those from the highest mountain area have the strongest perception of rainy days; (3) The farmers from different altitudes have different choices on their adaption strategies, from low-mountain area adopt combination adaption strategies of production, life and insurance, those from higher mountain area mainly adopt the combination adaption strategies of production and life, while those from the highest mountain area mainly adopt single productive adaption strategy to cope with the climate change. Greenhouse Gas Emissions  Select Game simulation on emission reduction under the background of the Paris Agreement Jing WU, Qian-Ting ZHU, Shi-Qi WANG, Zheng WANG Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 182-190. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.044 Abstract ( 914 ) HTML ( 12 ) PDF (2967KB) ( 555 ) A seven-region based integrated assessment model is established in this paper targeting to model the emission reduction game worldwide. Under the Paris Agreement, given the emission mitigation scheme by 2025/2030, 2050, and 2100 for each country (region) as gaming strategy, the Nash equilibrium, the uncertainties of the game and the influences from external mitigation mechanisms are evaluated in each strategy combinations. In the reference scenario, no country (region) would take emission reduction after 2030 for the sake of their own optimal social welfare improvement, leading the global temperature rising to 2.62℃ by 2100. The Nash equilibrium remains stable even when the climatic and economic parameters are disturbed. As an alternative, an external sanction on non-mitigation is applied; in this scenario, climate change mitigation propagates across countries (regions) according to various sanction levels, in which developed countries tend to adopt mitigation strategy earlier than developing countries as a response to the non-mitigation sanction. Meanwhile, under the Paris Agreement, simulation also reveals the emission reduction from 2030 to 2050 has become crucial for making the 2℃ threshold viable if no extra mitigations are implemented before 2030. An emission reduction target higher than the “developed and developing countries cutting emission 80% and 50% on 1990 level by 2050” is required in this circumstance, otherwise the global temperature will overshoot 2℃ around 2040. Forum  Select Progress and outlook of the negotiation of adaptation communication under the Ad-hoc Working Group of Paris Agreement Min-Peng CHEN, Yu-Cheng ZHANG, Shuo LIU, Yu’E LI Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 191-200. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.151 Abstract ( 1039 ) HTML ( 9 ) PDF (1326KB) ( 465 ) Adaptation communication will link individual adaptation action at the national level with global goal on adaptation and collective adaptation efforts at the global level, in the regime of Paris Agreement. It is also the only agenda item on adaptation under the Ad Hoc Working Group of Paris Agreement (APA) and will exert profound influence on global adaptation actions and policies. This paper reviews the progress of negotiations on adaptation communications under APA, and analyzes the possible trends and outcomes of negotiations. Compared with most developing countries, China has relatively better adaptive and reporting capacity, and thus could take a more flexible stand in the negotiations. However, with calling on China to take the lead in global climate change action and provide adaptation support to developing countries, China will face increasing pressures in the negotiations. China should promote the South-South Cooperation on adaptation and the willingness to deepen the international cooperation without breaking the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities of the Convention.  Select Analysis and prediction of the seventh resources replenishment of the Global Environment Facility Lan CHEN, Wen-Tao WANG, Yi-Xin LI, Liu-Cai ZHU Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 201-209. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.006 Abstract ( 1066 ) HTML ( 19 ) PDF (1316KB) ( 417 ) Based on the seventh resources replenishment (GEF-7) negotiation process of Global Environment Facility (GEF) and current world economic and political situation, it is predicted that the programming envelope of the GEF-7 will be between US$ 4.1 billion and US$4.4 billion, with a decrease of 0?7.5% over GEF-6 programming level. Meanwhile, the GEF will further its reform in promoting global environmental benefits, lowering the resources available to the emerging developing countries, prioritizing the needs of the least developing countries, more actively engaging with private sectors and improving its operational efficiency and effectiveness. As the biggest recipient and donor developing country, China will remain its eligibility in GEF-7 while being deeply affected in terms of resources allocation, project programming and designing, as well as the scale of contributions. Even in the status quo replenishment scenario, China’s STAR allocation in GEF-7 is expected to be reduced to US$ 143 million ?159 million. At the current stage, China needs to closely follow and actively participate in the GEF-7 replenishment negotiations, take overall consideration and plan ahead so as to promote the GEF reform consisting with the interests of China and other developing countries.
 Select Impact of South-South Cooperation of climate change in China on adaptation negotiations in the post Paris Agreement Shuo LIU, Yu-Cheng ZHANG, Yu-E LI, Xin MA Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 210-217.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.169 Abstract ( 1024 )   HTML ( 11 )     PDF (1320KB) ( 584 )   Adaptation to climate change is an important negotiating topic for developing countries. After the Paris Agreement decided in 2015, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it has become a focus that how to implement the implementation rules of adaptation issues. Developed countries are trying to put pressure on China and other big developing countries to engage in the investment in global adaptation activities. However, within developing countries, there are also differences on views of adaptation issues, which causes the difficult for developing countries to form a cohesive force. China South-South Cooperation (CSSC) in climate change, is an important form of cooperation between China and other developing countries in the field of climate change. Whether China can find a suitable point and play a certain role in adapting to negotiation or not, the advantages and disadvantages analysis and the top-level design about CSSC should be carried out as soon as possible. Through the analysis of the United States, Europe and Japan on foreign aid mechanism, the assistance requirements from major small group of developing countries, and the summary of the situation on the past China’s foreign aid project on adaptation, this paper puts forward the problems and suggestions in the future relationship between CSSC and adaptation negotiation, such as to distinguish between adaptation and mitigation assistance, to avoid fund misunderstanding issues. For broad diplomatic interests, the paper tries to provide reasonable policy suggestions on the construction of the South-South Cooperation Fund mechanism.
Notes
 Select Understanding global warming of 1.5℃ from CMIP5 Climate Change Research. 2018, 14 (2): 218-220.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.015 Abstract ( 714 )   HTML ( 18 )     PDF (920KB) ( 570 )
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