Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 223-235.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.104

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Estimation of uncertainty based on emission reduction targets in NDC/INDCs

CHEN Nan1, LIN Xuan-Chen2   

  1. 1 Sino Carbon Innovation & Investment Co., Ltd., Beijing 100007, China
    2 Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
  • Received:2020-05-27 Revised:2020-07-20 Online:2021-03-30 Published:2021-04-02


Based on the 165 Nationally Determined Contributions/Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC/INDCs) submitted by countries, the emission reduction targets proposed in NDC/INDCs were taken as the benchmark in this paper. Some factors were considered including the uncertainty of the scope of the emission reduction target, the uncertainty of the carbon intensity reduction target derived from economic scenarios, boundary differences of emission reduction gas type and carbon emission peak constraints, and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantitatively analyze GHG emissions, uncertainties and their sources of global, regional, and major economies. The results show that by 2030, the total global GHG emissions will reach 62.69 Gt CO2e, with a 90% confidence interval of 53.17-74.26 Gt CO2e; since the uncertainty of expected future economy has the most significant impact on emissions, the sources of uncertainty vary greatly among regions. Meanwhile, based on the 2℃ target emission scenario where total emissions by 2050 are 40%-70% lower than in 2010, global GHG emissions need to be reduced by 5.0% % annually from 2030 to 2050. In order to minimize the uncertainty of the global GHG emissions target and continue to work towards the completion of the 2℃ target, countries have to further propose clearer and unified statistical boundaries and more ambitious emission reduction targets when updating their NDCs during the first global stock take.

Key words: NDC/INDCs, Paris Agreement, Emission reduction target, Uncertainty

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