Estimation of uncertainty based on emission reduction targets in NDC/INDCs

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.104

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the 165 Nationally Determined Contributions/Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC/INDCs) submitted by countries, the emission reduction targets proposed in NDC/INDCs were taken as the benchmark in this paper. Some factors were considered including the uncertainty of the scope of the emission reduction target, the uncertainty of the carbon intensity reduction target derived from economic scenarios, boundary differences of emission reduction gas type and carbon emission peak constraints, and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantitatively analyze GHG emissions, uncertainties and their sources of global, regional, and major economies. The results show that by 2030, the total global GHG emissions will reach 62.69 Gt CO₂e, with a 90% confidence interval of 53.17-74.26 Gt CO₂e; since the uncertainty of expected future economy has the most significant impact on emissions, the sources of uncertainty vary greatly among regions. Meanwhile, based on the 2℃ target emission scenario where total emissions by 2050 are 40%-70% lower than in 2010, global GHG emissions need to be reduced by 5.0% % annually from 2030 to 2050. In order to minimize the uncertainty of the global GHG emissions target and continue to work towards the completion of the 2℃ target, countries have to further propose clearer and unified statistical boundaries and more ambitious emission reduction targets when updating their NDCs during the first global stock take.

Key words: NDC/INDCs, Paris Agreement, Emission reduction target, Uncertainty

CHEN Nan, LIN Xuan-Chen. Estimation of uncertainty based on emission reduction targets in NDC/INDCs[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(2): 223-235.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Flow chart of China’s CO2 emission peaking target analysis

Fig. 2 Monte Carlo simulation analysis path of uncertainty of NDC/INDCs emission reduction target

Table 1 Uncertainty factors as random variables

Table 2 2030 GHG emissions of the globe and a few major regions estimated by various studies Gt CO2e

Table 3 Uncertainty attributable to various identified drivers in 2030 global emissions

Fig. 3 Distribution of global GHG emissions under different SSP scenarios using CEPII model database

Fig. 4 Sources of uncertainty in emissions by region in 2030 (CEPII model)

Fig. 5 Global and major countries’ and economies’ emissions per capita in 2010 and 2030

Fig. 6 Global emissions and uncertainty ranges in 2010, 2030 and 2050 under the 2℃ target emission scenario

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