Future CO2 emissions projection of China based on U.S. new climate policy

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.093

Abstract

Abstract:

In this paper, the LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the CO₂ emission in the production sector in China during 2000-2014, and the CO₂ projection model is established by combining the STIRPAT model to analyze the possible CO₂ emission of China during 2017-2030. The results show that economic growth and energy intensity are the two most important factors influencing the change of CO₂ emission in China. The contribution rates are 114.9% and -22.6%. Three routes are set, which are normal route, emission reduction route and radicals route, a total of 9 scenarios. Low carbon scenario of normal route and benchmark scenario of emission reduction route could achieve CO₂ emissions peak in 2025, and low carbon scenario of emission reduction route could achieve peak emissions by 2020.

Key words: CO₂ emission projection, LMDI method, Scenario analysis, CO₂ emission peak of China, New climate policy of U.S.

Jie-Ming CHOU, Ru-Feng DAI, Wen-Jie DONG, Jing-Han BAN, Chuan-Ye HU. Future CO₂ emissions projection of China based on U.S. new climate policy[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(1): 95-105.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1 Carbon emission coefficient and oxidation rate of various types of energy

Fig. 1 CO2 emission of each industry during 2000-2014

Fig. 2 Decomposition results of CO2 emission for production sector during 2000-2014

Fig. 3 Yearly decomposition results of CO2 emission for production sector during 2000-2014

Fig. 4 Differences between regressions and observed values during 1980-2014

Table 2 Possible emission scenarios for China to response to the U.S. new climate policy

Table 3 Change rate of per capita GDP under different scenarios %

Table 4 Change rate of energy intensity under different scenarios %

Fig. 5 Projection results of CO2 emission during 2017-2030

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Future CO₂ emissions projection of China based on U.S. new climate policy

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