Climate Change Research ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 607-616.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.028

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Development of economy and its influencing factors in China under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Jin-Yu PAN1,Bu-Da SU2,Jian-Qing ZHAI2,Yan-Jun WANG1(),Tong JIANG1   

  1. 1 Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2019-01-28 Revised:2019-03-25 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
  • Contact: Yan-Jun WANG


Based on the latest economic and demographic census and annual statistical yearbooks, development of national economy for 2010-2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was predicted in China using Cobb-Douglas economic model by taking the “Universal Two-Child” policy into account. And contributions of three main influencing factors, namely, labor input, capital input and total factor productivity, to economy were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) under SSPs, economy will continuously grow in China. The growth rate of GDP will remain around 6% before 2030, but a rapid decline is predicted in the 2030s-2060s. Since the 2070s, growth rate of GDP will be lower than 0.5% under SSP1 and SSP4, and be 0.5%-1.5% under SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5. (2) Among three main influencing factors of economic development, the labor input will reduce until the 2060s and then increase under SSP3. On the contrary, it will rise up to peaking in the 2020s and then decrease under other SSPs. When comes to the capital input, it will keep rising up and gradually become steady from the 2080s under SSP1 but will show an increase trend under SSP2、SSP3 and SSP5 with a slight decrease in the 2060s and 2070s under SSP4. Total factor productivity will increase under all SSPs. (3) Since the reform and opening up in 1978, capital input has been the most important factor affecting economy in China. In the future, total factor productivity will gradually become the main factor to economic development under SSP1 and SSP2. However, capital input will continuously play a major role in the economic development under SSP5.

Key words: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Economic prediction, Labor input, Capital input, Total factor productivity

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